The Day of Reckoning for New Labour?

It is a rule of politics that the governing party's majority diminishes at each election. The results of Britain's general elections do not differ from that reality. In 1997 Labour won more seats at larger margins than it won in 2001, but in 2001 voter turnout also decreased, which of course affected the swing factor. New Labour still has a large majority, but turnout on 5 May is expected to be lower than in 2001 because the perception is that Labour again will win a smaller but effective majority.

When assessed seat-by-seat and region-by-region, New Labour's overwhelming strength and dominance is apparent. The main opposition Conservative Party holds no seats outside England. In fact in England the Conservatives are strongest in the southeast, the east, and the east midlands. Conservatives hold a few seats in the southwest, fewer in the west and the west midlands, several in the Greater London region, and a minimal number in the northwest and the northeast. Despite changing leaders three times since 1997 (William Hague replaced John Major; Ian Duncan Smith replaced William Hague in 2001; Michael Howard replaced Ian Duncan Smith in 2003) the effort to revive the Conservative Party is far from successful.

While the Conservative collapse continues, the Liberal Democrats (Lib-Dems) continue to gain momentum. Lib-Dems represent constituencies throughout the UK and control numerous local councils. Although it is unlikely the Lib-Dems will win enough seats on 5 May to replace the Conservatives as the main opposition party, Labour and Conservatives may lose seats to Lib-Dem candidates. Lib-Dem leader Charles Kennedy says if the election produces a hung Parliament (one with no clear majority party), his party will not participate in a "Lib-Lab" coalition government.

Mr. Blair is far from popular among British voters. The position he took in respect of the war in Iraq remains a troublesome issue. In the Sedgefield constituency Mr. Blair represents, he has fourteen opponents. One of them is an Independent candidate whose son was killed in Iraq. With Sedgefield's location in the strong Labour northeast, defeat for the party leader seems quite a remote prospect, but there is much hostility and antagonism towards Mr. Blair even within Labouur, so his victory in Sedgefield is not assured. It would be a very interesting situation to watch evolve if Mr. Blair lost his seat (more likely to a Lib-Dem than a Conservative candidate). That would leave Labour with no leader. If Labour wom a majority, but Mr. Blair lost, would the role of party leader and prime minister go to deputy leader John Prescott? As a Constitutional matter the monarch can ask any member of Parliament to form a government. That person generally is the party leader, but there is no such formalized requirement. When a prime minister resigns, a party leadership election selects the new prime minister, but there is no recent precedence of a party leader losing his seat at an election.

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