The Post-Arafat Transition

By the time this is published, a vital act in the Mid-East "peace process" (the death of Yasser Arafat) already may occur. As of the time of writing, Mr. Arafat lingers "between life and death" - a quite appropriate analogy for the Mid-East "peace process" itself.

The term Palestiniian technically means anyone born in the Mandate of Palestine. Palestinians are Arabs, Jews, Christians, and Islamists. In the syntax of its modern and corrupted meaning, Palestinian refers predominately to Islamic Arabs who inhabit the Golan, the Gaza, the West Bank, and East Jerusalem. Since Israel was created as a state in 1948, the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO) and Mr. Arafat waged various kinds of war to negate Israel's existence. Whatever the diverged perceptions on Israel's legitimacy, it is a full member of the UN and participates in multilateral processes, so discussions of legitimacy should be shelved. The PLO response to that legitimacy should not be shelved.

Israel gained control of Palestine without Arab consent. Israel got the land from the UN who nominally controlled it. Before the land was transferred to Israel, Arabs and Jews occupied it in equal numbers. Their populations were so intermingled that partition was deemed impossible. Despite this, Arabs and Jews each tried to control the land until the UN interceeded to award it to Israel. Then Jews tried to expand their territorial claims based on security needs. This forced the partition that was deemed impossible by sending the Arabs from their land and into refugee camps in the neighboring states. Arabs vowed revenge, and from that desire for revenge, the PLO emerged.

For most of its existence, Mr. Arafat operated the PLO from its headquarters in Tunisia and from bases in Lebanon. The PLO won regional allies as Israel and its Arab neighbors fought a succession of wars. In 1993 it seemed a compromise finally might develop. In 1998 a compromise almost materialized, but Mr. Arafat rejected the deal because he believed he could get more concessions by refusing what Israel offered him. That rejection ended the "peace process.

With Mr. Arafat removed from the process, new progress may begin. His most likely successors are recognized as leaders whose authority Mr. Arafat tried to undermine because they are willing to compromise. If more moderate leaders emerge in the occupied territories, it will send the radical Palestinian elements such as Mr. Arafat's al-Axa Brigades, a more appropriate message: In this situation the violent route to revolution obviously was the least effective.

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