The new year still feels fresh, but many eyes in Germany are already looking ahead to the autumn general elections. The current coalition Government of social democrats (SPD) and green (Buendins90/Gruene) led my Chancellor Schroeder has been in office ever since ousting the corrupt Kohl-Government in 1998. The outcome of this election will also be major importance outside of Germany’s borders. As the leading economy in the European Union (and number three worldwide), the country’s economic performance has regional impact in the EU and well beyond. The political role of Germany in international institutions has risen considerably in recent years. Internally, issues related to safeguarding labour and welfare standards, environmental protection, reducing the persisting socio-economic disparities between Germany’s Eastern and Western states as well as immigration and citizenship debates, all these issues have been difficult policy areas for the Schroeder Government. In retrospect, the administrations’ handling of these issues has been disappointing: early expectations of profound political reforms to take place after taking office have been widely frustrated.
Still, the accomplishments achieved, if one indeed wishes to call them such, have had the effect of relieving the political standstill and halting the social roll-backs the Kohl-Government was infamous for. There was little to call Christian about the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and even less to consider social about the Christian Social Union of Bavaria (CSU), the two conservative parties of the Kohl-regime. The opportunistic Free Democrats (FDP) stood for all that helps their own friends and nothing that strengthens genuine, responsive democracy. The disgraceful departure of Kohl himself (under investigation for corruption, eventually proven) rightfully discredited the entire CDU, even in the eyes of previous supporters. The leadership question was subsequently never really resolved. Ever since taking up the position, Ms. Merkel appeared as a mere temporary solution, hardly in charge, offering little in terms of political substance and certainly without charisma. She bowed out of the contest to become the parties challenger in the coming elections, making way for Mr. Stoiber of the smaller CSU. With the extremely radical Mr. Stoiber as their candidate, the conservatives will certainly succeed to delineate their reactionary political position. Luckily, no outright majority of Germans will fancy to be governed by such radicalized conservative Government. The memory of the 16 year-old, hollow promise of broad-based economic progress, literally called upswing “Aufschwung” Kohl once proudly proclaimed has not faded. A real danger that now lies before Germany is voter absenteeism, as a recital of widespread disenchantment with the piecemeal and minimal progress the Schroeder Government has achieved. Although overall conditions in Germany can be considered “better than before under Kohl”, this dull sentiment does not suffice to mobilize voters much beyond the truly party faithful of the SPD. Many voters may simply choose to abstain, seeing little to real vote for compared to voting against. Should a large sectiojn of the electorate not vote, then indeed the conservatives could have an edge and be able to secure a slight majority in Parliament, possible again with the FDP (who as always are on the lookout for political jobs).
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