GLOBAL Spin 2002

Since August I have been with the Suite, as a contributing writer for international affairs. Since August these affairs have been fast-paced, to say the least and no one has been able to ignore the fact that global events are truly inter-related. With just a few short days ahead before the Christmas holiday and trying to get some peace of mind after all the violence and destruction around the world in the past months, it may nevertheless be the right time to cast a speculative glance at the New Year’s “burning” political issues.

In 2001 the UN had fifteen peacekeeping missions deployed around the world. The Heidelberg Institute of International Conflict Research in Germany (http://www.hiik.de/en/index.htm) reports that twenty conflicts have escalated during this year. Today there are various international organizations active in peace building and conflict prevention, all dedicated to making the world a safer place (http://euconflict.siteworld.nl/euconflic... Sadly there is little correlation been good intentions and global peace, and continued long-term commitment to the cause is called for. Through the contributions to the Suite, I will continue to draw attention to global affairs, especially with an eye on political crisis and crisis resolution.

Often drawing on the work of many fine agencies researching, responding and reconciling crisis around the world, my Suite101 articles will provide short, but hopefully accurate and clear insights of such events (many that may be little noticed by and large).

While there is no way of knowing where events will unfold and which issues will shape the political agendas in 2002, a few “best guesses” will be taken. In general, I think that there will be three (partially interrelated) types of issues that will attract the political spotlights. First there will be the actions and measures taken in the aftermath of the September 11 tragedy. Already it appears that three countries will be under stronger scrutiny (again): Iraq, Sudan and Somalia. Perhaps Yemen will join this group. It will be a test of international law and convention to deal with any crisis situation in these countries in a non-violent manner. Past failures of predominantly military responses to inherently political and socio-economic problems need not be repeated for the sake of appearing resolved and capable of response to home audiences and media interests. I tend to side with those who are troubled by seemingly endless perpetuation of conflict and crisis but who see that the sanction approach can lead to positive results, as the case of South Africa has so strikingly proven. Keep the food-for-oil lid on Iraq, stop oil company investments in Sudan and address the small arms flow problem of Somalia and in due time things can change for the better. I prefer the disappointment of smoldering conflict to accepting “collateral damage”.

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