Urban fiascos ready to happen

It is a well-known fact that urbanization has increased tremendously in the past decades. Nowhere are the effects of rapid urbanization more striking than in the developing world where growing masses assemble in sprawling towns, in the hope of reaping some fruits from much-praised globalization. In many countries, urban populations are now larger that rural ones. Traditionally rural societies are increasingly faced with governance and management problems that even in rich countries are often only inadequately met. Several trends of urbanization deserve closer policy attention and will be briefly pointed out in the article.

The challenges ahead are truly major, as the age of urbanization poses profound challenges. It is estimated that "(O)ver the next three decades the world's population is expected to grow by some 2.2 billion people and the majority of this growth will take place in urban cities within developing countries." (1) This will result in "profound impacts on global health and the environment. The key to preparing for this trend is better understanding of the cycles of poverty, disease and violence that affect the urban poor today. (2)

For many years, moving in rapidly growing, dynamic cities and urban areas was seen as a symbol of upward mobility. Advantages of living in a city clearly outweighed the inconveniences or stress associated with urban life. Compared to stagnation and even decline of livelihoods in rural areas where despair and indifference appeared to rule, hopes and dreams clearly lived in the city. This is of course the idealization of city life, adhered to by recent newcomers to urban life. Already soon after, even upon arrival in the big city, social economic realities grab hold of the new city-dweller. Especially in the economically advanced western societies, the mounting load of urban disadvantages has generated a reverse migration movement largely among the more affluent sections of urban society, from the city centers to the suburbs. Undoubtedly, "cities usually have higher levels of crime, pollution, old and rundown housing, building and physical infrastructure stock, higher tax rates, and poor quality public services, including poor schools (than new suburban areas). (3)

It should be seen as a widening characteristic of today's cities for many years to come, that social divisions, social exclusion, discrimination and unequal economic and political opportunities will stand out as central features of city life. This is likely to be true in developed as under-developed countries. Where social cohesion exists, it will loosen; as integration of new city dwellers, especially of non-traditional backgrounds, further fails, social fabrics will be stretched to their limits, more frequently than ever before snapping apart. Trends in the USA may well be typical of social deteriorations to come around the world. Today, city life in the USA is deeply marred by class and racial divides. Clearly, the "post-war American city has changed for the worse:

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