Election Time

India is gearing for elections to five state legislative assemblies. These run across Assam in the Northeast, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Pondecheri in South and West Bengal. Apart from a focus on local issues, these elections have provided the opposition with an opportunity to validate its claim that the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) has lost its mandate in view of Tehelka.com disclosures as well as the recent stock market scam. (For Tehelka.com reference, see my column on this page dated 23/04/01). In other words, these polls will test the popularity of the ruling NDA vis-à-vis opposition influence. A lacklustre performance by NDA partners will sound the alarm bells that their influence is dipping. While the opposition will take it as a signal to intensify their drive against the ruling alliance.

India has a three-tyre government system in place. The Union or Central Government is equivalent to the Federal Government in United States. It is headed by the Prime Minister who must be the leader of the largest party in the Lok Sabha, which is the popular chamber of Indian Parliament. State Governments are quasi-federal in nature. They have their own legislatures but no independent constitutions. Residuary powers belong to the centre. The lowest level is Panchayats or rural/urban local bodies. Since no single party could secure a working majority in the parliament, government was formed by the National Democratic alliance or NDA, which is a conglomerate of around 20 outfits. The Hindu conservative, Bharatiya Janata Party or BJP happened to secure the highest number of seats among NDA partners. Therefore, Atal Bihari vajpeyee became the Prime Minister. The principal opposition party happens to be the Indian National Congress lead by Sonia Gandhi, the widow of the late Rajiv Gandhi. These bi-elections are important because the NDA has lost its popularity due to a corruption scandal and a stock market scam. Moreover, 16 troops of India’s Border Security force were brutally lynched to death by Bangladesh Rifles and a civilian Bangladeshi mob in Pyrdiwah Assam. Their bodies were return in mutilated condition showing marks of brutal torture. This is likely to cast an adverse effect on the prospects of Nda partners.

Assam: Assam is the largest among 7 Northeastern states of India. It is located along the 4500 KMs long India-Bangladesh border, 6.5 Kms of which is undemarcated territory. It is here in this undemarcated territory that the lynching incident took place. Its population is a mixture of Hindus, Muslims, tribal and Bangladeshi refugees. Assam has always been marred with the twin problems of insurgency and infiltration of Bangladeshi refugees who come here in search of better economic prospects. They come in thousands and their sheer quantity has rendered local Assamese in minority in many enclaves. This is why parties like the BJP advocate their expulsion from India. These refugees have evoked a feeling of repulsion among locals because they compete for the same amenities and opportunities. Many insurgent organisations have sprung up. Some demand secession from the Union of India, others want to carve out a separate province for a sub regional entity. The Assam Gana Parishada or the AGP has been Assam since the last election. On this occasion, they have tied up with the BJP, which was their adversary earlier. Preliminary opinions polls have predicted a wave in the favour of the Congress party. People want to see tarun gogoi as their next Chief Minister.

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