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Belmont 2002


© Greg Melikov

Jun 3, 2002


Twenty horses, between 1944 and 1999, entered the Belmont Stakes with high hopes of winning the Triple Crown. Seventy-five percent of those 3-year-olds didn't.

Amazingly, of those 20 who had a shot of achieving immortality, 15 tasted defeat. Seven of the 11 who hit the board finished second.

That's why I'm pulling for War Emblem. Racing needs a Triple Crown winner. So I guess I'm also pulling for Bob Baffert since he trains the 3-year-old who needs the Belmont Stakes on Saturday to become the 12th thoroughbred to accomplish the feat.

But I wish he hadn't said: "Fate owes me a Triple Crown. Let's do this Triple Crown. I might not get too many chances."

Austrian writer Stefan Zweig said: "Fate is never too generous - even to its favorites. Rarely do the gods grant a mortal more than one immortal deed."

There's no doubt the son of Our Emblem will be favored to capture the 134th Belmont Stakes. Frankly, I don't believe any horse in the 11-horse field will beat him - unless fate rears its ugly head and the colt encounters real trouble.

Most likely, Proud Citizen, trained by D. Wayne Lukas, will stalk him like he did in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness - one of several survivors of the first two legs to test him again. Only one horse who did not race between the first Saturday in May and the Belmont in the last decade has captured the third leg of the Triple Crown: Commendable, trained by Lukas, in 2000. In the last six decades, newcomers to the TC trail won the Belmont 13 times, with six stopping TC bids.

Over the past six years, Baffert missed the Triple Crown by less than a length. Let's look back at history's near misses:

*1944: Pensive lost to Bounding Home by a half-length.

*1958: Tim Tam was the runner-up to Cavan, beaten six lengths.

*1960s: Five who could have won it all lost; the closest was Forward Pass, who was defeated by 1 ½ lengths to Stage Door Johnny.

*1970s: Two great horses, Canonero II and Spectacular Bid, could get no closer than fourth and third, respectively.

*1980s: Of three tremendous champions, none could get closer than Sunday Silence's second to Easy Goer.

*1990s: No Kentucky Derby/Preakness winner lost by more than 1 ½ lengths; the closest was Baffert's Real Quiet, beaten a nose by Victory Gallop.

Is Baffert tempting fate? Maybe so, but I'm keying War Emblem in exactas and trifectas. I can't do any worse than I did in The Derby or Preakness.

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Here's the follow-up discussion on this article: View all related messages
4.   Jun 13, 2002 2:37 PM
In response to message posted by JButler:

Check out www.horsingaround.info for my feelings. And thanks for responding. ...

-- posted by GregM_3
3.   Jun 8, 2002 4:47 PM
In response to message posted by JButler:

Oh well.....I'll dry my tears.....and there's always next year! ...

-- posted by JButler
2.   Jun 8, 2002 2:30 AM
In response to message posted by GregM_3:

War Emblem may possibly be one of the greats, but we haven't seen enough of him yet to b ...

-- posted by JButler
1.   Jun 3, 2002 3:24 PM
Will War Emblem do it? What do you think? I think he will.

-- posted by GregM_3



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