Kentucky Derby 2002© Greg Melikov
Apr 27, 2002
The Run for the Roses is the first Saturday in May so I'm going to make my choices in the 128th running of the most prestigious stakes for 3-year-olds.
Last year, I wrote: "Best finishes in the final prep, 41 of last 43 Kentucky Derby winners hit the board -- 13 fill the bill, but seven were victorious: Balto Star, Congaree, Express Tour, Keats, Millennium Way, Point Given and Thunder Blitz."
None of the above won.
Then I wrote: "Top Beyer speed ratings, at least 105 as a 3-year-old -- Subtract Express Tour (rating unavailable) and Thunder Blitz from the above group; add Monarchos and Songandaprayer."
Success: Monarchos won and paid double digits.
Ah, but then I wrote: Horses need at least two outings as a 2-year-old, including a stakes race: Cross off Balto Star, Congaree, Monarchos, Thunder Blitz and Tincin.
Wrong!
Best performances at Churchill Downs: A P Valentine, Dollar Bill, Fifty Stars, Keats, Monarchos and Point Given.
Success: Monarchos again.
But I picked Point Given: The only contender to receive points in all my qualifying categories. The son of Thunder Gulch, the '95 winner, was trained by Bob Baffert, a two-time Derby winner, and ridden by Gary Stevens, who was aboard the '88, '95 and '97 victors. PG had been no worse than second in eight trips, going for his fourth straight triumph.
Ah, but bad outings are common at Louisville and the best horse often doesn't win. Point Given, the best 3-year-old last year, was victorious in the next two legs of the Triple Crown and several following stakes. Unluckily, he was injured and couldn't compete in the Breeders' Cup.
Now let's get to the nitty-gritty. There are several horses I like in the 2002 Kentucky Derby.
Besides being winners, Harlan's Holiday and Came Home have worked well at Churchill Downs. I've watched them on TVG. HH holds the edge over CH when you consider pedigree, but I'm impressed with both. Likewise Saarland.
My sentimental favorite is Blue Burner, who improved this spring at Gulfstream Park -- until the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct. I'm going to include him in exotics ever though Jerry Bailey jumped ship.
The big question mark: Saarland -- close but no cigar this year. Ah, then throat surgery. Did you notice that tremendous workout -- it rivals that of HH?
My picks:
Harlan's Holiday, who won at Churchill Downs last year, will take it all. He's an improving workhorse who won the Blue Grass easily and should be the longest favorite to triumph in many moons.
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