The Juvenile Jigsaw © Greg Melikov
Jun 26, 2001
The 2-year-old season is heating up at Calder Race Course, which runs the most juvenile races. I like wagering on the youngsters because the payoffs can be lucrative.
Consider a half-dozen key factors when handicapping juveniles early in their career. AZt Calder, they are:
*Pedigree -- Breeding is most important, especially when wagering on first-time starters. There are sires whose siblings have a penchant for winning their debuts. They range from Carson City and Diablo to Storm Cat and Valid Appeal. They include Crafty Prospector, Distinctive Pro, Dixieland Band, Gone West, Meadowlake and Pentelicus.
*Trainers -- There's a knack to handling 2-year-olds. South Florida trainers worth watching include Manny Azpura, Shawn Musgrave, Eddie Plesa Jr., Michael Trivigno, David Vivian and Marty Wolfson.
*Early speed -- Inexperienced horses who clear the field save ground and avoid traffic problems. Thoroughbreds who display early speed before fading should be tabbed for their next outing.
*Workouts -- Evenly spaced workouts (five, six or seven days apart) are more important than speedy clockings. However, if a juvenile averages 12 seconds or less per furlong, keep tabs on the potentially good runner.
*Changes -- Adding blinkers shuts off distractions and often increases speed. Lasix, the anti-bleeding medication, has a profound effect on juveniles the first time. A shadow roll helps a horse to run level. Going from turf to dirt may be just what the trainer ordered to reach the winner's circle.
*Tote board -- Favorites capture more than their share of races. Even more telling: Over the last several years, more than 50 percent triumphed when they went off as the first or second choice.
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