Kentucky Derby 2001: Making a Point
There are excellent analyzing aids, valuable guidelines and tantalizing theories to select the winner of Kentucky Derby 2001.
Most of the contenders share several pluses: A dozen captured at least one stakes race as a 3-year-old, including 10 who captured graded stakes, and 12 won as 2-year-olds, including four who did it in graded stakes.
The most reliable formula over the decades, except for three years in the 1990s, is dosage -- a mathematical analysis of the strengths in a thoroughbred pedigree based upon the location of certain outstanding sires in the family.
Of this year's contenders, Express Tour, Fifty Stars and Millennium Way fail to qualify, but that doesn't mean they should be ignored.
While no winner of the 17 Breeders' Cup Juvenile races has won the Kentucky, third-place finishers Alysheba ('87) and Spend a Buck ('85) did. Sea Hero finished seventh in '92 and won the '93 Derby. (Nonwinners do better in the Preakness, three, and the Belmont, seven. Only BC Juvenile winner to take a Triple Crown race: Timber Country ('94), the '95 Preakness.
Likely favorite Point Given lost by a nose in the 2000 BC Juvenile at Churchill Downs; Dollar Bill was 10th and A P Valentine 14th.
Seeking the winner, based on a dozen categories, I've arrived at my selections by awarding points on a sliding scale. The check list includes:
*Best finishes in final prep (41 of last 43 Derby winners hit the board) -- Thirteen fill the bill, but seven were victorious: Balto Star, Congaree, Express Tour, Keats, Millennium Way, Point Given and Thunder Blitz.
*Top Beyer speed ratings, at least 105 as a 3-year-old -- Subtract Express Tour (rating unavailable) and Thunder Blitz from the above group; add Monarchos and Songandaprayer.
*At least two outings as a 2-year-old, including a stake race: Cross off Balto Star, Congaree, Monarchos, Thunder Blitz and Tincin.
*Top times for 1 1/8 miles (two furlongs shorter than Saturday's distance) -- Balto Star, Congaree, Express Tour and Point Given.
*Best performances at Churchill Downs -- A P Valentine, Dollar Bill, Fifty Stars, Keats, Monarchos and Point Given.
The only horse to receive points in all categories: Point Given, trained by Bob Baffert, a recent two-time Derby winner, and ridden by Gary Stevens, aboard the '88, '95 and '97 victors.
The son of Thunder Gulch has been no worse than second in eight trips. Steadily improving, he's going for his fourth straight triumph.
Millennium Wind was second in my compilations. The son of Cryptoclearance recorded the highest speed rating of the field winning the Blue Grass Stakes. He has tactical speed. Never lower than second in five outings, he could give Lafitt Pincay Jr. his second victory since Swale in '84.
The copyright of the article Kentucky Derby 2001: Making a Point in Horse Racing is owned by Greg Melikov. Permission to republish Kentucky Derby 2001: Making a Point in print or online must be granted by the author in writing.
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