Long Layoffs Losing Proposition


My favorite handicapper, Steve Klein of the Daily Racing Form, offers this advice: Lay off long layoffs.

He recently wrote: "At handicapping seminars I've given at Keeneland and in Las Vegas, the typical reaction I get when I warn bettors to avoid low-odds horses returning from length layoffs is something like this: 'Sure Steve, guess some handicappers are foolish enough to bet on horses like that, but not anyone is this room. We're too smart to fall for a bad bet like that.' "

In a recent contest at Calder Race Course, four of five handicappers making selections for The Form picked Play Muttering, off 268 days and breaking from post No. 12, to score despite being winless at the track and at seven furlongs on the dirt.

The 4-year-old was dropping way down in class, but only captured one of seven races last year. The topper: He was the consensus best bet of the day.

The public wasn't taken in. The son of Defensive Play went off at 8 1/2-1 and finished seventh, beaten nearly a dozen lengths.

"The theory that previous comeback attempts can accurately predict the future comeback tries is terribly flawed," he observed in his column Bottom Line. "It is a cherished handicapping myth that I've never seen challenged in print. The problem is that the theory assumes that all layoffs are equal. They aren't. Short layoffs aren't usually a big deal."

Twenty-four hours earlier, Persian Spy was coming off a 390-day layoff, showed a victory off a two-month hiatus in 1998 and was 2 for 4 at a mile. This time the same handicappers didn't give the 5-year-old a chance, but bettors made him second choice.

The son of Vice Regent finished a half-length behind favored Sur Irish's Secret, my best bet, who was runner-up to third choice Halo World.

"The stats on horses returning from layoffs of about a year are terrible," Klein wrote. "They yield the lowest return per dollar bet that I've seen from any test I've done."

His warning: "Don't let the great trainer, the great jockey, or the fast workouts fool you. The percentages dictate that you should try to beat horses returning from long layoffs, especially at low odds."
The copyright of the article Long Layoffs Losing Proposition in Horse Racing is owned by Greg Melikov. Permission to republish Long Layoffs Losing Proposition in print or online must be granted by the author in writing.

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