Kentucky Derby 2000
©
Greg Melikov
May 2, 2000
The 126th Run for the Roses should be a lollapalooza.
Trainer D. Wayne Lukas puts it best: "I don't see any exceptional horse. No Spectacular Bid, no Seattle Slew or Secretariat. In my opinion, I don't think they are here. I think we are getting more of an even keel in 20-horse fields; more horses with legitimate chances, but I don't see a dominant horse this year at all. I wouldn't concede The Derby to any horse."
Lukas knows how to win in a crowd -- three of his thoroughbreds triumphed in the four largest fields (19) in the 1990s: Thunder Gulch, '95; Grindstone, '96; and Charismatic, '99. He sends out High Yield.
Jerry Bailey also can win in a crowd -- he was on Grindstone and guided Sea Hero to victory in 1993. He will be aboard War Chant.
Of the eight fields ranging from 19 to 21 since '81, not a favorite was victorious. For that matter, no favorite since Spectacular Bid in '79 has captured The Derby. Exit Fusaichi Pegasus, who may find 150,000 or so fans at Churchill Downs somewhat disturbing, if past antics are any indication.
Actually, the only way to handicap this Derby field is to start eliminating 3-year-olds. Globalize was scratched Thursday after cutting his leg following a workout, reducing the field to 19.
No winner of the 16 Breeders' Cup Juvenile races has been victorious either. Exit Anees. Entries unraced as 2-year-olds haven't either since Apollo in 1882. Exit Trippi and Wheelaway.
Since the first Derby, with the exception of three winners in the 1990s, no horse had dosages higher than 4.00 (such figures give a contender's distance potential based on stallions from the first four generations of the horse's pedigree). Exit Commendable and Graeme Hall.
The most amazing statistic I've come across is 40 of the last 42 winners of The Derby finished at least third in their last prep and the other two, Sea Hero and Thunder Gulch, ran fourth. Exit Exchange Rate, Hal's Hope and Ronton.
Barring further scratches, I'm left with a half-dozen contenders. Of the group, High Yield has raced the most (12) and won the most (3) Grade 1 events, but his last two battles may have taken its toll. The Deputy is coming off four great efforts and probably already hit his peak or will make me look foolish. Captain Steve hasn't won this year, but worked well at the track where he took a stakes as a 2-year-old. More Than Ready is steadily improving, may be sitting on his best race and also won as a juvenile at Churchill Downs. Any of them could win, but I'm saying one will run third, most likely More Than Ready.
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