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It's a Long, Interesting Road to the Roses


Handicapping the Kentucky Derby is no easy task most years. That's because the post time favorite has lived up to his odds only twice since Spectacular Bid did in 1979.

Last year, Smarty Jones came through as a lukewarm choice while Fusaichi Pegasus triumphed in 2000. However, no favorite scored in the '90s and '80s. From '80 to '99 when there were 15 double-digit winners the average return exceeded $27.

Prep races play a key role in the scheme of things, but not for the reason you might think. Winning isn't nearly as important as running well and hitting the board.

So far, several horses have pushed back their '05 debut or next prep because of minor problems. They include Proud Accolade, victorious in the Hutcheson Stakes at Gulfstream Park, who will miss Saturday's Louisiana Derby because of a fever.

Only two winners of this race at Fair Grounds captured the Kentucky Derby: Black Gold in '24 and Grindstone in '96. However, Funny Cide, third two years ago, smelled the roses and was only the gelding to do it since Clyde Van Dusen in '29.

Saturday's race is wide open. The field includes the top three finishers in the Risen Star Stakes: last-to-first Scipion, Real Dandy and Storm Surge, who earlier captured the Lecomte Stakes; Vicarage, third in the Hutcheson; and High Limit, making his 3-year-old debut after an allowance victory.

Here are other early preps that might decide which horses continue on the Road to the Roses:
Rebel Stakes, March 19: Only two horses that won this race scored at Churchill Downs: Smarty Jones last year and Sunny's Halo this year.

Expect these contenders at Oaklawn Park: Afleet Alex, winner of the Mountain Valley Stakes following his second place in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile; Greater Good, who took the Southwest Stakes; and Rockport Harbor, undefeated winner of the Remsen Stakes making his first start this year.

San Felipe Stakes, March 19: Horses that hit the board do better in Kentucky than those who triumph. Outside of Fusaichi Pegasus, you must go back decades to find a double winner.

Trying their luck will be Wilko, BC Juvenile winner making his sophomore debut; Giacomo, third in the Sham Stakes; Don't Get Mad, runner-up in the San Vicente Stakes; Consolidator, fourth in the San Vicente; Golden Shine, allowance winner at Santa Anita; and Roman Ruler, fifth in the BC Juvenile.
The copyright of the article It's a Long, Interesting Road to the Roses in Horse Racing is owned by Greg Melikov. Permission to republish It's a Long, Interesting Road to the Roses in print or online must be granted by the author in writing.

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