How to Handicap Horses Coming Off Layoffs© Greg Melikov
Nov 7, 2004
One of the trickiest aspects of handicapping is how to treat horses coming off layoffs, especially after months of rest.
There is no obvious answer, but an outstanding handicapper for the Daily Racing Form offers this insight:
"The theory that previous comeback attempts can accurately predict the future comeback tries is terribly flawed," Steve Klein observed in his column Bottom Line. "It is a cherished handicapping myth that I've never seen challenged in print. The problem is that the theory assumes that all layoffs are equal. They aren't. Short layoffs aren't usually a big deal."
No matter the length of the layoff, there are several rules of thumb I follow:
The thoroughbred must have performed well in the past in similar circumstances, preferably winning right off the layoff.
The trainer should have a high percentage in this category, at least 15 percent.
Class horses at the allowance and stakes level often run better than rested claimers.
Routers have a better winning percentage than sprinters because the slower pace conserves energy.
Look for solid gate workouts, especially breezes at four or five furlongs. Horses returning from short layoffs, 30 to 60 days, should show a four-furlong workout within seven days of the race. Those off from 61 days to six months show have worked at five furlongs or longer within two weeks. In all cases, the times aren't important.
Runners should improve off the second layoff while the most crucial start comes in their next outing.
The horse should race at a suitable distance. For example, lay off thoroughbreds going a mile or longer at first asking.
What happened in the last race? Did the horse perform well before being rested?
Check out body language in the paddock or post parade. Does the thoroughbred look good? If the horse excessively wet, wasting energy need to perform well? Does the runner warm up? If you spot first-time front wraps, it could mean the layoff was dictated by injury and the tape is covering enlarged ankles.
Thoroughbreds returning after layoffs from two months to half a year run better than those rested longer.
"The stats on horses returning from layoffs of about a year are terrible," Klein says. "They yield the lowest return per dollar bet that I've seen from any test I've done.
"Don't let the great trainer, the great jockey, or the fast workouts fool you. The percentages dictate that you should try to beat horses returning from long layoffs, especially at low odds."
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