Keys to Handicapping the 21st Breeders’ Cup


Handicapping the Breeders' Cup World Thoroughbred Championships on Saturday is no ride in the park. One major observation: Only six horses with layoffs longer than 60 days have captured BC races. Here's more advice, including how Lone Star Park has played since 2002, which should help narrow your choices in the eight races:

$2 Million Distaff, 1 1/8 miles, 3-year-olds and up: Favorites have dominated, with 16 winners going off at less than 3-1; eight were odds-on. No European-based horses triumphed. Nine winners were based in California, seven in New York, three in the Midwest and one in Canada. Five 3-year-olds have scored. Most winners in Lone Star routes were within three lengths of the lead at the second call since 2002, according to Bloodstock Research Information Services (BRISnet), while tactical speed is important because few closers have done well around two turns.

With Azeri running in The Classic, this race becomes a crapshoot. The top contenders: Society Selection, 4-1, and Storm Flag Flying, 9-2, especially on an off track because each is 2 for 2, and Ashado, 7-2, and Stellar Jayne, 6-1, both 2 for 2 at the distance.

$1 Million Juvenile Fillies, 1 1/16 miles: This is an all American race - no invader has won. Look for pedigree screaming stamina. Seven returned double-digit payoffs. From a historical standpoint, the winner will likely break from outside post 3 and need a late kick. However, only 19 percent going this distance at the track led at every call, BRISnet says, while inside posts did best.

A really wide-open affair with top speed figures shared by a half-dozen fillies, including three with a victory at the distance: Balletto, 5-1, Runway Model, 4-1, and Sweet Catomine, the 5-2 morning line favorite off a win in the Alcibiades at Keeneland. Sense of Style, 7-2, can rebound off a troubled trip in that prep while Sharp Lisa, 50-1, was a head behind the winner, Runway Model, and In the Gold, 10-1, another head back.

$1.5 Million Mile, on the turf, 3-year-olds and up: Seventeen different horses have won in 20 runnings, including nine bred in Europe. Eight actually based overseas went to the winner's circle. Only Lure in 1992 was in front at every call; he repeated in '93, but stalked pace-setting Ski Paradise until taking over near the half-mile pole. Inside posts hold a distinct advantage at this track while stalkers and closers have won a majority of races the last couple years, BRISnet says, but wire-to-wire jobs were only 18 percent.
The copyright of the article Keys to Handicapping the 21st Breeders’ Cup in Horse Racing is owned by Greg Melikov. Permission to republish Keys to Handicapping the 21st Breeders’ Cup in print or online must be granted by the author in writing.

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