Handicapping Hints for Kentucky Derby


Here are my top contenders, in reverse order, for Saturday's Kentucky Derby:

Limehouse: Captured a pair of sprints last year at Churchill Downs, but finished six lengths behind Blue Grass runner-up. Jose Santos unlikely to work another miracle like last year on Funny Cide. No. 1 post won't help, with morning line odds set at 30-1.

Lion Heart: Unbeaten as a 2-year-old, the son of Tale of the Cat tailed off this year, finishing second in two graded stakes, including the Blue Grass with Mike Smith aboard. Could set pace, but likely to fade. At 10-1, breaks from post 3 and likely forced to gun it.

Wimbledon: Fifth in Santa Anita Derby after taking the Louisiana Derby. Jerry Bailey switches from Read the Footnotes, but Bob Baffert's colt has regressed the farther he goes. Breaks from post 5, 15-1.

Borrego: Runner-up three times in 3-year-old stakes, beaten by Smarty Jones, Wimbledon and Master David. Victor Espinosa sticks, but just might trail any of the other three in the 1 ¼-mile contest. Draws post 12, 20-1.

Read the Footnotes: Posted highest Beyer speed rating (113) in Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream Park, but hasn't raced since fourth-place finish in the Florida Derby on March 13. The last 3-year-old to win the Kentucky Derby after skipping April preps was Needles 48 years ago. Robby Albarado jumps aboard. Departs post 14, 12-1.

Friends Lake: In same boat as Read the Footnotes prep-wise, but did take Florida Derby. Excellently bred horse would step up on an off-track, but hasn't recorded a triple-digit Beyer speed figure. Richard Migliore stays in the saddle. Leaves post 6, 15-1.

Master David: Alex Solis guided the Sham Stakes winner along the rail to second in the Wood Memorial, but his training has been limited because of illness. A perfect trip might get him in the money, but with a 20-horse field it'll be a crapshoot. Trainer Bobby Frankel goes 0 for 6. Breaks from post 8, 12-1.

Tapit: Ramon Dominguez guided well-bred gray to half-length victory after he overcame sore shins and a lung infection. But colt hasn't had a triple-digit Beyer. At 8-1, departs post 18.

Castledale: Irish-bred pulled a big surprise capturing the Santa Anita Derby despite Jose Valdivia Jr. losing his whip at the eighth pole. Drifted for second time in four races, mostly sprints across the Atlantic. Breaks from post 16, 15-1.

Smarty Jones: Undefeated chestnut with Stewart Elliott up has done everything right, winning six races an average of 5 ½-plus lengths. The last unbeaten horse to win at Louisville was Seattle Slew in 1977. This colt took the Arkansas Derby on a muddy track. The only Pennsylvania-bred to take home the roses was Lil E. Tee in '92. Draws post 15, 9-2.
The copyright of the article Handicapping Hints for Kentucky Derby in Horse Racing is owned by Greg Melikov. Permission to republish Handicapping Hints for Kentucky Derby in print or online must be granted by the author in writing.

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