Santa Anita Derby Should Answer Some Questions
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Greg Melikov
Mar 29, 2004
I have no idea which 3-year-old will win the 2004 Kentucky Derby. The 130th running is so wide open that many so-called experts admit they don't have a clue.
Hopefully, the last major preps in April will answer some questions. However, when in doubt rely on speed figures recorded in races preceding the Run for the Roses -- the higher the better chance of victory.
The 67th Santa Anita Derby on Saturday has pointed the way to a half-dozen winners at Louisville since the 1990s. But no horse finishing on top has captured the Kentucky Derby since Sunday Silence in '89. Six of the last 10 hitting the board, however, won.
This year's $750,000 contest at 1 1/8 miles features a field of seven, including several contenders who either triumphed or ran second in March races on the Left Coast.
Bob Baffert's Louisiana Derby winner Wimbledon was made the morning line 5-2 favorite and drew post 3, with Javier Santiago in charge.
The remaining field, in post position order, is:
1. Imperialism, Victor Espinoza, 7-2, who posted the highest Beyer speed figure while capturing the San Rafael at Santa Anita on March 6: 104.
2. Lucky Pulpit, Jon Court, 12-1, eighth in the San Rafael.
4. Castledale, Jose Valdiva, 20-1, sixth in the San Rafael.
5. Quintons Gold Rush, Cory Nakatani, 5-1, fourth in the San Rafael with a 93 speed rating.
6. Rock Hard Ten, David Flores, 3-1, making his stakes debut with a top Beyer of 98.
7. St. Averil, Tyler Baze, 7-2, nosed out in the San Felipe on March 14 while posting a 102 Beyer.
The $500,000 Illinois Derby at Hawthorne, also on Saturday, has attracted lesser-known sophomores, including Pollard's Vision, third in the Louisiana Derby; White Mountain Boy, third in the John Battaglia Memorial Stakes at Turfway Park; and Song of the Sword, an allowance race winner at Aqueduct. War Emblem took this race in '02 before scoring at Churchill Downs.
Three preps on April 10 may only attract three or four contenders each. Master David, who hasn't raced since winning the Sham with a 100 Beyer on Feb. 8, is pointing toward the Wood Memorial. Three winners of this race since '81, when Pleasant Colony triumphed, won at Louisville; the others were Fusaichi Pegasus, 2000, and Monarchos, 2002.
The Arkansas Derby will feature Smarty Jones, who posted a 106 Beyer while winning the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn on March 20. The Cliff Notes, third in the Florida Derby, has a top speed rating of 100.
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