20th Breeders’ Cup Should Be Very Interesting© Greg Melikov
Oct 23, 2003
I haven't done well in the Breeders' Cup World Thoroughbred Championships for several years. In 2000, I did so badly that one of my faithful viewers asked if I was any better forecasting the outcome of NASCAR races.
I went 0 for 7. It could have been worse -- one of my selections was scratched. Luckily, I watched the races on TV in Houston before attending the wedding of my wife's niece and couldn't make a wager.
On Saturday, I hope to do perform better, more like '99 when I covered the event at Gulfstream Park. I picked several winners and cashed three exactas.
This is the third time in two decades that the BC is being staged at Santa Anita, which has a tendency toward producing lower priced winners.
According to Bloodstock Research Information Services, if you don't include the $269.20 winning payoff in the '93 Classic, the other six races averaged only $6.90 on the front end. If you don't count the $73.80 winning return in the '86 BC Mile, BRISnet says, the others six races averaged $12.60.
How the eight stakes shape up: $2 Million Distaff, 1 1/8 miles, 3-year-olds and up: Favorites have dominated, with 16 of 19 winners going off at less than 3-1; eight were odds-on.
With Azeri retired, Sightseek is the shortest price morning line favorite on the card at 6-5 in the smallest field of the day -- seven. The Robert Frankel-trained 4-year-old filly is going for her fifth in a row with Jerry Bailey aboard. Got Koko, 2-1, defeated Azeri and Sightseek this year and stands a chance, going 5 for 7 at Santa Anita. Take Charge Lady, 8-1, won her last two at the distance, but is trying the California track for the first time. My selection: Sightseek. Include in exacta: Got Koko, Take Charge Lady.
$1 Million Juvenile Fillies, 1 1/16 miles: This is an all American race - no European invader has ever won. The distance shortens back from the 1 1/8 miles staged at Arlington Park because of the short run to its first turn. Look for a pedigree screaming stamina. Seven winners returned double-digit payoffs.
Undefeated Halfbridled is the early 7-5 favorite, but breaks from the outside post in the 14-filly field. The daughter of Unbridled, trained by Richard Mandella, took her third under guidance of Julie Krone last month at the distance at Santa Anita. Bob Baffert saddles two contenders, Class Above, 7-2, and Victory U.S.A., 10-1. D. Wayne Lukas, going for his fifth victory in 20 races, also sends out a pair, including Be Gentle, 13-1. The steadily improving daughter of Tale of the Cat won her last at the distance on Oct. 3 at Keeneland. However, in the first 18 races of this meeting at 1 1/16 miles, wire-to-wire winners are only 17 percent. My selection: Giant killer Allen Jerkens' Society Selection, 8-1. Include in exacta: Victory U.S.A, Halfunbridled.
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