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A Standard Experiment: How to determine present day efficacy

© Bernd Wechner

Having reviewed the state of the art in hitch-hiking experiments last month, we saw that of eight experimenters each approached the question independently, designing very different experiments along the way. Comparing them is a questionable task with a broad range of conditions, technique and result. All the same, they produced results, the only results we have - the only objective historical record we have of how efficient hitch-hiking is or was.

I've often been faced with the suggestion that hitch-hiking is not nearly as efficient now as it was then. It derives I suspect, from the generally sound observation that there are far fewer hitch-hikers now than then. Yet, as I noted last year, there is not a soul on record that has, since the 1970's set out to measure the truth of such a conclusion - how efficient it actually is.  It is by no means sound logic to conclude from the decline in popularity of hitch-hiking, that the efficacy has similarly declined. All the same, perhaps it has, who knows?

Robert Prins kept exquisite notes over 18 years and 1072 rides. He recorded an average wait of just under an hour, but didn't spend any time counting passing cars, so we're not easily able to compare his results with those of objective studies. All the same with such a lengthy wait, it would seem he's waiting much longer than your average experimenter from the '70s did. Robert's the first to admit that his wait times are a little inflated because of his inclination to solicit rides directly at services and wait around until the right, comfortable car comes along ... not an objective technique for assessing efficacy so much as a clever technique for getting around comfortably!

Over a couple of year I kept some notes on my experiences, I too recorded my wait time but not a count of passing cars. On some roads I'm sure 100 cars passed my in a few minutes, on others, one car every few hours, so wait times are not easily comparable with the results of the 1970s experiments (which all counted the portion of passing drivers that pulled over). I can say with confidence though that around Europe and Australia after 704 recorded waits my average wait was 34 minutes. It is somewhat distorted by outback Australian waits of several days in length though and neglecting these a more modest 18 minutes emerges.