Gambling On The Big Boys

Golf is a game beautifully tailored for gambling. Money frequently changes hands based on the outcome of a round or a tournament. Rare is the player who hasn't both counted out and collected a handsome sum over the years after departing the eighteenth green. The currency exchanged is testimony to the rabid, though frequently groundless, confidence golfers have in their own ability to perform.

Golfers possess the same boldness when it comes to the financial expression of their thoughts on the games of others. Realizing this, sports books dangle attractive odds like bait for those in a wagering frame of mind. If the bait is attractive enough, a bet will be made. Since no one plays defense in golf, the odds are based solely on the relative abilities of a given player. Traditionally, those accepting wagers profit handsomely on the diversity of opinion held by the golf betting public regarding those abilities.

Tiger Woods has rearranged this cozy relationship like Godzilla rearranged Tokyo. His Shermanesque march through last year's Tour schedule left precious little diversity of opinion in its ashes. We are all very well aware that Mr. Woods is currently a far superior player, and "sure things" are bad for the sports betting business. In response to Woods' dominance, the sports books have bestowed upon him the ultimate compliment. They have created a fictional parallel universe in which he does not even exist. It's called the "Without Tiger Woods" category. The sports bettor may now risk capital on the best of the rest.

In January, according to my unscientific research, Tiger was little better than an even money bet to lead the PGA Money List in 2001. Phil Mickelson and David Duval shared the next shortest odds at 11-1. Ernie Els was perched alone at 17-1. Vijay Singh and Davis Love III followed at 34-1. The odds on the usual suspects increase gradually as the list grows longer. Several on-line services offered a player the caliber of Jasper Parnevik at roughly 100-1.

If Tiger is surgically removed from the proceedings, the odds on those same players dropped dramatically. Mickelson and Duval could be had at slightly less than 4-1. Mr. Els sat at 6-1, while Davis Love III and Vijay were at 13-1. Jasper teed it up at 34-1. In considering this Tiger-free environment, be aware that if Tiger plays 20 tournaments and wins his traditional percentage of them, the pool of available prize money dwindles. That will tighten the "Best of The Rest" money race and make it difficult for any player to build a significant advantage. In this alternate reality, it's likely to boil down to the Tour Championship in Houston this November.

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