Is the Web going to achieve true "critical mass" in the next few years, or will remain the privilege of a limited class of computer owners? There are approximately 600 million phone lines worldwide, and far fewer computers. In the US, which is on top of the list, only about 40 percent of households have PC's, and of course, not all of them are connected to the World Wide Web. But the balance is changing rapidly.
99 percent of US households have at least one TV, and the merging between Web and TV will allow interactive purchases and banking transactions for most households. This merge has already started with WebTV, and will continue with the introduction of digital, interactive TV next year. The analysts believe that by 2005 the Internet system will be as large as the phone system is today. Nicholas Negroponte goes even further: one billion people worldwide may gain access to the Web by the year 2000.
ELECTRONIC COMMERCE
The expected boom in e-commerce seems to have started already this holiday season in the US. Jupiter Communications announced that products and services purchased over the Net will account for 44 percent of all Christmas purchases this year (which total US$2.6 billion).
E-stores have a number of important advantages: they are "open" 24 hours a day, have lower overhead, do not worry about shelf space (could show more products than WalMart), and may offer "mass customization", hardly possible in traditional retailing environments.
International Data Corp (IDC) has released a report predicting that total spending on the Web will jump to more than US$200 billion worldwide by 2001.
Almost two thirds of US companies will be conducting e-commerce next year, according to a survey by CMP Research. 68 percent of all believe that these developments demand a reevaluation of traditional business models.
WEB IN CARS, MALLS AND AIRPORTS
Some car manufacturers are working on prototypes designed to roll out of factories few years from now with wireless Web service on board. The Mercedes e420 is designed to have screens mounted on the back of front seats, and near the driver. Apparently every car will have a Web page which, strangely enough, will monitor door locks and temperature control. The driver will communicate with the Web via voice, as we predicted last month, but it is unclear at this moment how far we are from a true, voice-operated, "Web radio".
