Home » Mind & Soul » Frontier Theory » Sure Things

Sure Things

© Laurence B. Winn

Thales of Miletus, a Greek philosopher who was a contemporary of Solon and Croesus more than six hundred years before the birth of Christ, left no written record, but only a reputation for wisdom. What makes him special is that he was the first in Western thought to propose the idea of a single, Unifying Principle that explains the way things work.

Indeed, Thales seems to have had a gift for reducing the complex to the simple, as when he suggested deducing the height of the pyramids by measuring the shadows they cast at that time of day when the length a man's shadow is the same as his height.

There is enormous power in understanding a Unifying Principle, if one can be found. And it's not just philosophical power, but the power of wealth and influence.

Thales was poor, the story goes, but hadn't noticed until some local bullies pointed it out, probably while taking exception to one of his ideas. Their problem with the philosopher was the classical one: If you're so smart, why aren't you rich?

Stung, Thales employed his understanding of meteorology to predict the occurrence of a bountiful crop of olives in the coming year. Knowing that this would place a strain on the existing supply of olive presses for making oil, he engaged every press he could find at a bargain price. When his predicted bumper crop materialized, the growers were forced to use the only presses available at whatever price Thales chose to charge. The philosopher made a fortune, and after that enjoyed the company of a better class of people.

Like predicting the weather, predicting future economic trends is a test of the ideas upon which the prediction is based. That is what gives frontier theory utility beyond the academic exercise of understanding history.

Frontier theory foresees that social planners, religious leaders, government agencies and others who profess to guide us, and have bombed out, will continue to fail, because they address symptoms rather than root causes, most of which have to do with enclosure -- the absence of frontiers. (See "First Principles".) But that is a huge root cause. What, exactly, are you supposed to do about it?

Nothing, perhaps.

What remains is to figure out how to profit from the fall of Western Civilization.

The three pillars of success in this endeavor have classical roots. They are Authority, Mystery and Superstition. If they sound familiar, it may be because they are also the ingredients of fundamentalist religion.