Issues in "Forensic" Psychological Decision Making

While some predictive signs of a attribute may be there we must not make assumptions because it is not necessarily the only likely hypothesis. For example, if someone is showing signs of sexual abuse (i.e., poor attachment patterns, bed wetting) we must not assume that the only potential reason for it is that the child has been sexually abused. We must consider all viable hypothesis because not all people who display certain characteristics display it for the same reasons.

(7) Over-reliance on memory.

While one may get quite comfortable with the evaluation process one should always take exceptionally accurate and detailed notes. With many evaluations under ones belt comes confidence. However, one also gets expectations for how the process occurs and heuristics form to make the process a little easier to get through. Unfortunately our memory can be hindered by this process by eliminating easy recall of information that is different form the norm.

(8) Under-utilization of base rates.

A base rate is the statistical rate of occurrence of a particular variable in the population. With a lower base rate (i.e, lower rate of occurrence) it becomes more difficult to predict the occurrence of a variable, primarily because more factors may be involved. Without examining the specific base rates of an event or variable we are at high risk of over predicting an event. For example, people tend to believe juvenile crime is occurring at a much higher rate then it is in actuality. We must consider the statistical base rates, not simply base our opinions on the over inflated believes of occurrence that we obtain from media and other sources.

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