Elections in Turkey: A Nationalist Landslide

Source: The Economist

The Nationalists took also advantage from the crisis of the two conservative parties, Motherland (AnaP) and True Path (DYP). Since the two leaders, the former prime ministers Mrs. Tansu Ciller and Mr. Mesut Yilmaz had both been involved in corruption scandals, their parties were badly punished by the voters. Ciller's Motherland Party reached only 12,6 % (- 6,9 %) and fell from 132 to 88 seats, the True Path party intercepted 13,3 % (- 5,9 %) of voters and reached 86 (135) mandates. Even worse was, at last the fate of the center-left Republican People's Party (CHP), a party in the tradition of state founder Kemal Ataturk, which conquered 8,5 % (- 2,2 %), thus falling short of the 10%-threshold and losing all of its 49 seats.

A Kurdish success

Another party that fell short of the hurdle could however be considered among the winners of the poll. The Kurdish Hadep was for the first time allowed to participate in a Turkish election. Their leader Murat Bozlak voted in a prison. With about 4 % they were excluded from having a parliamentary representation in the Turkish Grand National Assembly in Ankara, but what counts more is that they became the majority party in most of the Kurdish populated areas in the South-East. Moreover the local elections that took place contemporarily saw them even conquer most of the town and city halls in their region and their mayors will now govern important cities such as Diyarbakir.

While the Kurds could have made at least a little first step towards a maybe less dark looking future, the parliamentary situation in Ankara looks even more tricky than before. With five parties in parliament, a majority can only be reached by putting together at least three parties. The next prime minister, probably Mr. Ecevit, must therefore find at least two partners to form a majority coalition. Since Yilmaz and Mrs. Ciller are still fierce enemies, these cannot be both Motherland and True Path. Thus, the new coalition will have to include the Nationalists and the most probable solution is therefore a coalition between Democratic Left, Motherland and MHP.

Coalition arithmetic

In the days after the election Bulent Ecevit, a secular leader of the Left with sometimes surprisingly hawkish and nationalistic convictions, has already showed his attention for the Nationalists. Although their leader, Devlet Bahceli, is still a mystery to most Turks and foreign observers, the

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