Introduction
As explained by Mary M. Cain, Robert Mittman, Jane Sarasohn-Kahn, and Jennifer C. Wayne, Institute for the Future, Health e-People: The Online Consumer Experience is the second five-year forecast to map the landscape of Internet health care.In the next five years, online health-related products and services will develop in two stages.
The first stage, between now and the end of 2002, will follow a shakeout by business category that will leave only a few survivors in each ehealth niche; this near-term stage will be market driven, with only those players able to show a return on investment continuing to receive substantial venture capital support.
A longer-term and more significant shift will occur from 2003 through 2005 as increasing numbers of companies see the advantage of an online platform for business. The accumulation of a critical mass of health care data and agreement on information standards will lead to this stage.
Short Term: 2000 Through 2002
To succeed online in the immediate future, organizations will need to differentiate themselves and prove unique value, in both online and offline contexts, to either consumers or other health care stakeholders such as payers or providers. Successful organizations will target the demographic or cultural niche they may best serve.As the need arises, Well online health consumers will do business with ehealth companies and organizations that offer specialty products and/or discounts. They will become loyal only to brands that provide convenience and quality to them during their episodic encounters with the health care system. The group of consumers most likely to return to ehealth sites frequently will be the Chronically Ill and their caregivers. Serving this group well will be the key to success for many ehealth initiatives.
In a market-driven ehealth environment, advertising and a push to purchase will dominate the consumer experience. Using the Internet as a communications tool, comprehensive disease management will start with conditions that require a great deal of patient education, self-care, and monitoring, such as diabetes. Some companies that foray into providing disease management care will progress across disease states as well as across the care process.
In the next couple of years, ehealth consumers will also experience increased involvement in what have historically been strictly business-to-business transactions — for example, consumers online will work with pharmacy benefits managers to purchase prescription pharmaceuticals, search for clinical trial information, and obtain health insurance benefits and eligibility information. Administering the business of health care will move online, where appropriate, and the Web browser will link disparate databases and eventually will link consumers to their health care information and bills.
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