When Ares Comes Marching Home

Specifically, I've been contemplating the inevitable revolution. As Mars is populated, there will come a time when the Martian settlers will wish to throw off the yoke of their Earthbound oppressors and make their own way. Now, I have already indicated in a prior article about Martian government (We, the Martians) that I find it highly unlikely that the entire population of the Red Planet would have a Chryse Planitia Tea Party and subsequently draft a Martian Manifesto and unite in the cause of Martian independence. The settlement of Mars will be too ideologically diversified for that, because one of the primary selectors of who will choose to go will be the individual's belief system. Rather, the planet will be pocked with uniquely governed (or ungoverned) commercial colonies, and not all of them are liable to want to rebel all at once.

No, what will happen is that one or a few of the settlements will have cause to revolt against Earthly tyranny--perhaps because they are tired of exorbitant taxation by their remote rulers, or because they are weary of being managed by distant masters in other ways--and they will declare their own independence, without regard for the political status of the rest of the Martian population. The question that has so intrigued me of late is how the chips will fall in a conflict between the established powers of Earth and the nascent societies of Mars.

On the surface of things, it doesn't look good for the Red Planet. A vastly smaller population, a smaller economy, and certainly little or no available military power. Invaders from Earth could probably trample the Martian rebels, although if the Earthbound powers don't feel like getting their hands dirty, a full-spectrum embargo of Mars could just as easily bring the colonies to their knees, it seems. Yet the Martians would in fact enjoy such advantages as are sufficient for me to claim that the powers of Earth would not stand a chance provided that the Martians do not get overeager and revolt too early in the development of their societies--nor become complacent and delay the revolution too much.

First off, Earth's advantages will not avail them of any great success. The cost of transporting a large number of soldiers would be exorbitant; consider also the problem of maintaining 250 million mile supply lines. Any expedition to quash the rebellion would have to be self-sufficient and well-equipped for in situ resource utilization for an indefinite period. Furthermore, the likelihood of there being more than one or two such expeditions is virtually nil, again considering the expense and difficulty. The relative value of maintaining sovereignty over the Martian colonists just doesn't justify the expenditure, especially when there are so many commodities which could be just as profitably traded with independent Martians as with dependent ones.

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