Both decisions, when they are issued sometime next year, should prove to be juicy fodder for Court watchers, constitutional law experts and laypersons alike. I anticipate that both will also be the basis for sharply worded opinions -- on both sides. Perhaps one or both will be 5-4 decisions, as so many controversial ones have been in the last few terms.
Speaking of terms, we're into ten years of the Supreme Court's tenure without having had a new sitting Justice, the last being Justice Stephen Breyer, who was appointed by President Clinton. When will someone step down? Chances are good that it will be in the next president's first term. As such, this becomes quite the consequential election.
Certainly, all presidential elections are important, and the resident at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue will act in a way that determines the direction the country will go. After all, he has a bully pulpit at his disposal.
Yet this election necessarily carries more, because more is at stake than at any other time in recent history. I've mentioned on numerous occasions that congressmen and presidents come and go. Supreme Court Justices sit for a lifetime. That reality affects our way of life for many years.
So, who's likely to step aside? One can only speculate, but I'm game. Justice John Paul Stevens, appointed by President Ford, is the elder statesman on the Court and a very astute one. He's been part of much drama and history-making in his thirty years on the Bench. I don't see him sitting another four years.
Justice Rehnquist has already been the much discussed subject of retirement rumors. The Nixon appointee, who was elevated to Chief Justice with President Reagan's nod, will probably step aside, but much depends on who prevails in the November 2nd presidential duel. There's not much question that the outcome will weigh heavily on the timing and his ultimate decision. Prediction: if George Bush wins, the Justice will step down.
Another possible downstepper is Justice O'Connor, who has also been frequently mentioned as someone ready to leave the Bench. Gossip was rampant after the 2000 election finally concluded. The Court's first female Justice has hung in, but will she for another four years? Maybe, but her decision might also hinge on the 2004 election results.
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