2002 is shaping up to be a hugely interesting year for this industry – products will be made or broken, strategic visions will be judged, new technologies explored and ultimately a clearer picture of the future of computer gaming will emerge. Not too much to ask for, is it? What I have found breathtaking recently is the sheer scale of some of the risks being taken by players in the computer game industry. In no particular order these include:
• The gamble by Sega that they can convert themselves from a software developer and hardware manufacturer into a pure-play software company. In my opinion this move was a stroke of tactical genius – in one fell swoop they transformed themselves from a struggling console manufacturer with a tarnished reputation to a crack, feared and respected software developer being wooed by every hardware manufacturer in the world. However, there are several problems that Sega must surmount before we can prescribe a totally clean bill of health; (i) they must prove capable of reconciling the different demands made of them by the different companies they are working with – and avoid being pulled apart internally by factions supporting different platforms, (ii) they must come up with another slate of original game concepts – if they rest on their laurels then, no matter how big they are, they will be heading for a fall and (iii) they must keep their best programming guys on board, as the temptation for many to leave the giant Sega and move to join small companies in which they will have a bigger say will be immense. • Many companies have put money on 2002 being the year that on-line gaming catches fire. Hugely ambitious titles such as Planetside and the Star Wars online experience will test the revenue-generating capabilities of online gaming to the max, and it must be said that there are some who doubt that complex games with overheads as high as these will be able to turn enough of a buck, especially given the relatively low take-up of broadband connections. A lot of companies have bet on lot on the net and could stand to lose a lot…. • MICROSOFT. The x-factor, the unknown quantity in computer gaming over the coming year is the machine made by the men from Redmond. If it fails (which I find pretty unlikely) then it will reinforce the somewhat insular nature of the industry and cost Bill Gates more than pocket change – if it succeeds then the console industry will have been blown wide open. The games look good, the machine looks pretty good, but will people buy? Who knows?
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