FUTURE PERFECT?

So, in summation, I think I have outlined the current and future dangers for the computer industry, and shown why I think the industry is seriously ill. I will set up a discussion forum on this topic, so if you have any views on it please do tell me (I am sure there has to be someone out there who agrees with me, but I suspect that most people won't!). I hope you have not been disappointed by this report, given that it is not written in my usual (slightly flippant?) style, but I thought it was time for a serious look at the state of the industry. Don't get me wrong, I believe that the industry will recover, eventually, and I do not think that down the line there will be no exciting games being made. I think that the industry will recover, yet I do not hink we can predict what guise it will be in. I think the most likely forms for games companies of the future will be either:

 As part of a gaming conglomerate, such as those being assembled today by EA, Infogrames and Gathering Of Developers. These will share between them (and I believe that no more than five at most, and probably only 3) the lions share of the market, leaving little room for small developers to enter the market.  Incorporated into a bigger Entertainment Company. Most of the large entertainment companies already have 'Interactive Entertainment' a.k.a. game divisions, and many of these would be more than happy to team up with a games developer, possibly seeing buying such a company as a gateway between old and new media. I predict that within the next three years we will see the first Time Warner-AOL-Electronic Arts tag team, or United Artists-ID Software-Yahoo sized behemoth.  As a small part of a tech-corporate wheel. I believe that large tech companies will want to branch out into games and interactive entertainment as a way of bringing their products into the home of paying customers who would not otherwise buy the product. It is also possible that advertising may become the driving force for the games industry, with people playing games like 'Pepsi SlamFest Basketball' or 'the Mountain Dew Do the Dew Busta Rhymes Rap-A-Sonic Sound Studio'. Fun.

Anyway, I have shown what the state of play is now, and how I think the industry will shape up in the future. I hope that Industry workers do not sacrifice altogether their desire to push the boundaries of gaming, and having spoken to people like Shiny's Dave Perry I do not think that this will happen, but it may just become too hard for the innovators to compete. I wish them luck. As a last point I truly believe that the next major, huge development that really does change the games industry (Virtual Reality, Emotion Simulation, Touchy-Feelly Games. Whatever) will come from outside the industry, and that the only games companies that survive beyond that point will be those who react very quickly, and commit totally (rather like companies migrating to the Internet) - and this will be the first point where the current, established Gaming Corporate hierarchy may be deposed. Whatever happens, it will be a wild ride and I hope that you fill live it here with me or my successors on www.suite101.com.

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