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Filling Out That Bracket

© Chad Plunk

Ah, Springtime. The days are growing warmer, birds are chirping, flowers are beginning to bloom, and in every workplace across America people are waiting for the boss to leave them alone for an hour or two so they can fill-out their NCAA tournament brackets. If Americans spent as much time concentrating on our work as we do on the intricacies of the 8-seed vs. 9-seed game, we would probably have hydrogen-powered hovercars by now. Of course, we would also be boring workaholics, so let's take a look at those brackets!

The very first thing that each and every one of us should do is root for BYU to lose in the first two rounds. Why? Because BYU, being a Mormon school, does not play on Sundays. The NCAA committee is usually conscious of this fact and schedules accordingly, but this year the committee goofed. If BYU advances to the Sweet 16, they would be slated for a Sunday game. The school has already announced that it would forfeit any tournament games on a Sunday. Rather than face a forfeit during the tournament, the committee has instead announced that, should BYU make the Sweet 16, BYU will trade slots with another team, most likely the winner of the Dayton/Tulsa/Wisconsin/Weber State portion of the bracket. Brackets across the country will be instantly ruined. BYU must lose!

Although historical statistics obviously do not effect the outcome of current and future games, there are a number of historical trends that may be handy to know in the first round:

1)A 16-seed has NEVER beaten a 1-seed. Forget about it. Play the odds.

2)Only four times have 2-seeds lost to 15-seeds since the tournament expanded to 64/65 teams

3)Although everyone is aware that 12-seeds often upset 5-seeds, not everyone is aware that 11-seeds have upset 6-seeds exactly as often (23 out of 72 times since the tournament expansion).

4)Even less common knowledge is that 13-seeds have upset 4-seeds and 14-seeds have upset 3-seeds with some regularity (each has happened 14 out of 72 times).

The bottom line: don't completely discount the idea that a 3-seed potential Final Four team like Duke, Syracuse, Xavier, or Marquette could lose in the first round- it happens 19.4% of the time (about 1 out of every 5 times).

Now, let's take a look at a few historical statistics regarding the Final Four:

1)No team lower than an 8-seed has made the final four in the past fifteen years.

2) Since 1984, 35 of the 76 teams to make the Final Four have been 1-seeds. If you are playing the odds, at least two of your Final Four teams should be 1-seeds.

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