The Dreaded Bubble, Part I

In: Mercer

Only the conference champion, who is likely to be Mercer with its #114 RPI, will go.

Atlantic 10

In: Xavier, Dayton, St. Joseph's

Bubble: Rhode Island

Barring end-of-season collapse, Xavier, Dayton, and St. Joseph's are all in the tournament. All three actually have RPIs higher than Maryland, at #20,#21, and #29. The Atlantic 10 is definitely resurgent this year. Rhode Island is probably out at #71 in the RPI, but with a game left against St. Joseph's, it is possible for a win there and a good conference tournament run against Dayton and/or Xavier to put the Rams into the tournie.

Big East

In: Notre Dame, Syracuse, Pittsburgh

Bubble: Connecticut, Boston College, Seton Hall, Villanova

What a mess! Notre Dame, Syracuse and Pittsburgh have top twenty-five RPIs and are in. The remaining teams all have real issues. Connecticut played a weak opening schedule and thus suffers with a low #47 RPI. The Huskies also lack quality road wins. They will have two more road chances- at Notre Dame and Pittsburgh- but if they blow those they may miss out. They have been way over-rated in the polls. Seton Hall might be the biggest surprise team. Despite a poor overall record, the Pirates are at RPI #37, have won five in a row, and have beaten both Notre Dame and Pittsburgh. With a good conference tournament run, the Pirates might slip in. Boston College and Villanova are in the same boat as Connecticut. The Villanova-Seton Hall game which was cancelled by the blizzard will decide much when it is rescheduled. Expect the conference tournament to raise RPIs enough to bring-in two of the four bubble teams.

Big Sky

In: Weber State

Only the conference champion, likely Weber State (RPI #52), will go.

Big South

In: Winthrop

Winthrop leads the conference standings, but is #202 in the RPI. Obviously, only the automatic bid will go.

Big Ten

In: Purdue, Wisconsin, Illinois

Bubble: Indiana, Minnesota, Michigan State

The conference tournament will decide much. Purdue and Wisconsin have top twenty-five RPIs and are in. Wisconsin is a vastly underrated team that scores much more than people think. Illinois hovers with at RPI #28, and its 30-point pounding of Michigan State cannot hurt. Indiana (#39) has lost six of seven. The Hoosiers have a high RPI and quality wins over Maryland, Virginia, Gonzaga, Purdue, and Illinois. Even so, they need to start winning. Now. Michigan State(#37) plays Syracuse this weekend, and a win in that game would help their chances. Minnesota (#45) needs

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