There are two ways to make the tournament. The first, and only guaranteed, way is for a team to win its conference's automatic bid. In most conferences, the automatic bid goes to the winner of the conference tournament. In those conferences without a tournament, the regular season winner receives the bid. Thirty-one teams automatically qualify for the tournament in this manner.
The remaining thirty-four slots are filled via the second way that a team can make the tournament, which is to impress the all-powerful NCAA selection committee. Receiving such an at-large bid from the selection committee is a dangerous way to make the tournament, primarily because the selection committee does not have to follow any particular set of rules. Instead, the committee follows a set of nebulous guidelines, many of which are open to interpretation.
The primary focus of the committee is upon the RPI, which is a computerized ranking designed to determine a team's strength in relation to the other Division I teams. At its most basic level, the RPI is composed of a team's winning percentage (25%), its opponents' winning percentage (50%), and its opponents' opponents' winning percentage (25%). In other words, 75% of a team's RPI is dependent upon the strength of its opposition. If a team plays other strong teams and wins slightly more than half its games, that team will most likely have a higher RPI than a team which plays weaker teams and wins almost all of its games. There are a number of problems with the RPI. In fact, there are enough problems that an article can be written solely on the injustice of the system. The committee itself understands that problems exist with the RPI, which is why it also uses several other guidelines.
The committee also looks at a team's record over its last ten games, wins against "quality" opponents, wins on the road, and conference record. Each of these areas can also be nebulous. Is a road win versus Syracuse more impressive than a road win versus Oklahoma State? No true measure really exists, hence the danger of relying upon the committee for an at-large bid. This year, the committee is placing special emphasis upon conference records. Teams who do not have a .500 winning percentage within their conference are in serious jeopardy of not making the tournament.
