Scoring is exciting. For this reason, the focus of many college basketball fans and announcers has often been on scoring. When many people think of basketball, they think of rim-shaking dunks and rainbow three-pointers fired from way outside. After all, to win a basketball game a team must score more points than its opponent. In the entire history of college basketball, not one team has ever won while scoring less points than its opponent, right? Absolutely.
However, this focus upon scoring often causes the main battle of basketball to be overlooked. Since the two teams in a game alternate possession of the ball after each made shot, the teams will have possession of the ball, and therefore a chance to score, approximately the same number of times during a game. The team that scores on a higher percentage of its possessions will therefore win almost every game.
The goal of team offense is thus to maximize the percentage of team possessions resulting in points. Alternately, the goal of defense is to minimize the number of opposing team possessions resulting in points for the opposing team. Seems obvious, doesn't it?
Where the point of the game is missed, however, is in those exciting scoring highlights. Suppose, for example, that Arizona's Jason Gardner brings the ball up court against UCLA and, when Arizona is unable to get the ball inside, drills a beautiful three right over the outstretched hand of the man guarding him. UCLA comes back down the court, passes the ball around for twenty seconds and then works the ball in for an easy lay-up. On Arizona's next possession, Gardner again cannot find an open man, so he takes the ball inside, dribbles between two defenders, and hits a ten foot fall-away jumper with yet another hand in his face. He is clearly in the zone, and is hitting everything he takes. Arizona is in great shape with their star guard on fire. Except that Arizona is going to lose the game if Gardner keeps shooting the shots that he is shooting. How can this be?
Remember, the game is about efficiency. Arizona and UCLA will have approximately the same number of possessions, with variances caused only by missed shots rebounded by the defensive team and turnovers. Although Gardner looks great and is shooting the lights out, UCLA's defense (for the purposes of this example, you will have to pretend that UCLA actually plays defense) has forced him to take two low percentage shots. Although he made both, over the course of a forty minute game the percentage of those types of shots that will fall is relatively low. If UCLA continues to work the ball around on offense and get good shots, they will make a higher percentage of those shots than Arizona will make of their fall-away jumpers and closely defended three pointers. UCLA will therefore win.
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