Things have been fairly quiet lately. When discussing recent political events, journalists and political commentators have tended to focus more on what they portend for the future than on the events themselves.
For the Liberals, an early election has certain benefits. Despite rumours that many in the Liberal Party would like him to step aside, it is becoming increasingly clear that Chretien intends to lead his party into the next election. There's some concern among party insiders that, if Chretien doesn't resign soon, Finance Minister Paul Martin will grow tired of waiting and leave politics to return to business. Martin sought the leadership of the Liberal Party in 1990, losing to Chretien at the leadership convention held in Calgary, Alberta. Ever since, he has been patiently waiting for the Prime Minister to step aside so he can have another shot at winning the crown. If an election were held in the fall, Chretien could quietly announce his resignation next year, providing the Liberals with plenty of time to hold a leadership convention, and for the winner to take the reins prior to the next election.
On the other hand, the results of the Canadian Alliance leadership race, will also undoubtedly play a role in whether or not the Liberals decide to hold an early election. Scuttlebutt says that the Liberals will be happiest if Preston Manning wins - the former Reform leader has already shown that he can't win seats in Ontario. On the other hand, they are much more uncertain how Tom Long would fare in a federal election. The Canadian Alliance might make substantial inroads in Ontario. On the other hand, they might also lose seats in the west (the Canadian Alliance currently holds sixty of the eighty-eight seats west of Ontario).
In other news, there is no doubt that healthcare will be high on the agenda when the four western Premiers meet this week in Brandon, Manitoba. The political makeup of this group is quite interesting - three NDP premiers and an Alberta Tory leader who has been taking a great deal of heat lately for passing Bill 11 - a controversial bill which many say spells the end of Universal Medicare. (The three territorial leaders, as well as governors of Idaho and North and South Dakota, will also be attending). Still, don't expect to see the other western leaders publicly attacking Premier Klein. They will want to present a united front when objecting to the federal government's approach to health care funding. (More on the western Premier's conference next time).
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