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Will the Canadian Prime Minister resign?

© Rhonda Parkinson

Will he stay or will he go? That's the question being whispered in the corridors and stairways of the House of Commons. Will Prime Minister Chretien resign, or will he lead the Liberal Party into a third election?

On the face of it, the answer seems simple. At a recent Liberal policy convention, the Prime Minister clearly stated his intention to stay on for a third term. And why not? Certainly if Chretien is seeking justification for doing so, he need only look into the not-so-distant past of his own party. After winning a impressive majority in the 1968 election, Pierre Elliott Trudeau stayed in power through two more elections (1972 and 1974 respectively), and then served a fourth term in 1980. Unlike Trudeau, who was forced to work with a minority government in 1972, Chretien has attained back-to-back majorities in the 1993 and 1997 elections.

Instead of trying to second guess the Prime Minister's true intentions, it might be more appropriate to ask why the issue is being raised at all. Why is a leader who consistently scores approval ratings of sixty percent or higher in public polls being urged to resign?

One reason is Chretien's age - the Prime Minister recently celebrated his sixty-sixth birthday. Another is that many people - media pundits and Liberal party members alike - feel that the sheen is finally beginning to wear off the Chretien government. Throughout his first two mandates it seemed that nothing - from the pepper spraying of students at the 1997 Asian-Pacific Economic Co-operation (APEC) conference to the government's failure to abolish the Goods and Sales Tax (GST) - could damage the Prime Minister's popularity with the Canadian public. However, recent events, such as the ongoing scandal over the mismanagement of job creation funds by Human Resources Development Canada (HRDC), have led a growing number of party members to question Chretien's leadership. Even Bill C-20, the clarity referendum bill setting out the conditions by which the federal government would negotiate Quebec's separation from Canada, was not an overwhelming success. The bill received passage in the House of Commons, but only after the Bloc Quebecois forced the Members of Parliament into an all night session as they introduced 411 amendments to the bill (all were subsequently defeated).

But will he go? Some insiders have expressed the opinion that if the Prime Minister doesn't decide to leave soon, he will have the decision forced upon him. In our parliamentary system of government, an election must be held every five years. This means that the current government must call an election by 2002. While this date may seem far off, it is traditional for majority governments to return to the people after only four years. Furthermore, if Chretien is going to retire, it is better if his successor has as much time as possible to select a Cabinet and get an organization in place before the next election.

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