Catch Me if You Can: the Tories Race for a New Leader and New Electoral Credibility
An unexpected Tory victory in the federal by-election in Perth-Middlesex, Ontario, has added a burst of steam to the Progressive Conservative leadership race.
Well, at least the kettle is plugged in.
Despite most pundits' predictions, this past week the Progressive Conservative party, while not throwing open the door to the all-important Ontario electorate, at least nudged it open a little and allowed a peek inside the room.
The Tories themselves downplayed the significance of the victory - not one going on record as suggesting the little rural riding represented the political phoenix arising from the ashes of the once proud party. But there's no denying the results may finally indicate an arrow through the heart of the 'vote-splitting' myth of the Progressive Conservatives and the Canadian Alliance party in Ontario.
The myth, of course, goes something like this: in order to win a federal election, one must win at least a fair chunk of Ontario, the most populous province in the federation. In attempting to defeat the Liberals in Ontario, the two conservative parties - Tory and Alliance - have split the small 'c' conservative vote, dividing the opposition and permitting the federal Liberals to dominate nearly every seat in the province for the past decade.
However, in the by-election to replace Liberal John Richardson - who had to resign for health reasons - the Progressive Conservatives' Gary Schellenberger defeated the federal Liberals' Brian Innes by nearly a thousand votes or 3.3%. The real story - insofar as vote splitting goes - is the Conservatives nearly doubled the vote tally of their conservative rivals, themselves barely squeaking past the New Democrats to capture a distant third place.
The Tory victory may put to rest another Canadian Alliance myth: Stephen Harper is the leader who will finally cause the party to gain the much needed breakthrough in Ontario and beyond if the Alliance is going to be seen as a viable, national alternative to the governing Liberals. Mr. Harper visited and worked the riding no less than five times during the by election campaign to apparently no avail.
Back then, to the Tory leadership race and the increased significance it may now have on the fortunes of the party. Insomuch as the Canadian Alliance party has failed since its inception to capture the imagination of Ontario voters, neither have the Progressive Conservatives been able to break into that vote rich market in any significant manner.
Such was not always the case: prior to the 1993 disastrous defeat of Canada's oldest political party, many Ontario ridings were considered Tory strongholds, including the prodigal Perth-Middlesex. If the Alliance is a western regional party, the Tories are largely an Atlantic Canada regional party, neither able to expand much beyond their traditional safe grounds.
Latest Articles