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2005 NBA Conference Finals Playoff Preview: Miami versus Detroit and Phoenix versus San Antonio


© David Friedman

Two rounds of NBA playoff action are complete and at this point Basketball Spotlight's prognostication record is roughly equivalent to a 48-34 season-seven correct series predictions (including five which also pegged the exact length of the series) and five incorrect picks. Playoff season is also cliché season, so it should be noted that Basketball Spotlight "stepped up" in the Conference Semifinals round, selecting the winner in three of the four series, in two cases also nailing the exact number of games.

Much like the NCAA Tournament, which features upsets early but generally matches up "chalk" teams in the Final Four, this year's NBA Conference Finals round includes nothing but one and two seeds. Each of the remaining teams has a distinct identity-Miami showcases "Shaq Diesel" and "Flash," Detroit has "The Defenders" (the title of their postseason media guide), San Antonio has "Groundhog Day" (Charles Barkley's nickname for the metronome-like efficiency of Tim Duncan) and Ginobili and Phoenix has MVP Steve Nash, emerging superstar Amare Stoudemire and the "Matrix" (Shawn Marion).

Eastern Conference Finals

Miami (1) vs. Detroit (2)

Regular season records: Miami, 59-23; Detroit, 54-28

First Round Result: Miami def. New Jersey, 4-0; Detroit def. Philadelphia, 4-1

Second Round Result: Miami def. Washington, 4-0; Detroit def. Indiana, 4-2

Head to Head: Detroit, 2-1

Team Playoff Leaders:

Scoring-Miami: Dwyane Wade (28.6 ppg); Detroit: Rip Hamilton (19.9 ppg).

Rebounding-Miami: Udonis Haslem (11.5 rpg); Detroit: Ben Wallace (12.5 rpg).

Assists-Miami: Wade (8.4 apg); Detroit: Chauncey Billups (7.0 apg).

Analysis/Prediction: The defending champion Pistons got off to a slow start this season, but down the stretch it became apparent that Miami and Detroit were on a collision course to meet in a much anticipated Eastern Conference Finals. Miami's roster is constructed like many previous NBA champions-two stars (Shaquille O'Neal and Dwyane Wade) surrounded by excellent complementary players who know their roles and fill them without complaint. The Pistons do not have one defining star-Defensive Player of the Year Ben Wallace comes closest-but have perhaps the best starting five in the league: Ben Wallace at center, Rasheed Wallace and Tayshaun Prince at forward and Rip Hamilton and Chauncey Billups at guard. Collectively this quintet has size, speed, length and toughness. Detroit coach Larry Brown is playing most of his starters 40+ minutes a game; the three bench players who are receiving the most playing time are Antonio McDyess, Lindsey Hunter and Carlos Arroyo. The Pistons showed that they could beat a Shaquille O'Neal anchored team in last year's NBA Finals, knocking off the Los Angeles Lakers in five games. It is clear that the "Shaq Diesel" that Detroit will face now is considerably less than 100% physically. Detroit's suffocating defense wears teams down mentally and physically during the course of a playoff series and, as Detroit Free Press columnist Drew Sharp mentioned in his May 20th column, "Game 6 is their stage." The Pistons have six straight Game 6 wins and will make it seven against the Heat, defeating the Eastern Conference's number one seed in six games.

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