Regular season records: Phoenix, 62-20; Memphis, 45-37
Last 10 games: Phoenix, 7-3; Memphis, 4-6
Head to Head: Tied, 2-2
Team leaders:
Scoring--Phoenix: Amare Stoudemire (26.0 ppg); Memphis: Pau Gasol (17.8 ppg). Rebounding-Phoenix: Shawn Marion (11.3 rpg); Memphis: Lorenzen Wright (7.7 rpg). Assists-Phoenix: Steve Nash (11.5 apg); Memphis: Jason Williams (5.6 apg).
Analysis/Prediction: Memphis slid to the eighth spot as the season drew to a close and made a run at ninth (i.e., missing the playoffs) before Minnesota finally gave up the ghost on its wasted season. Phoenix has been consistently strong all year, led by the playmaking of MVP candidate Steve Nash, the inside play of Amare Stoudemire and the three point shooting of Quentin Richardson, Joe Johnson, Shawn Marion and Nash. Although Memphis did play well against Phoenix earlier in the season, there is no reason to believe that Memphis is going to reverse its late season slide and knock off the number one seed. Memphis may take one game, but it is more likely that Phoenix wins in a sweep.
San Antonio (2) vs. Denver (7)
Regular season records: San Antonio, 59-23; Denver, 49-33
Last 10 games: San Antonio, 6-4; Denver, 8-2
Head to Head: Tied, 2-2
Team leaders:
Scoring-San Antonio: Tim Duncan (20.3 ppg); Denver: Carmelo Anthony (20.8 ppg). Rebounding-San Antonio: Duncan (11.1 rpg); Denver: Marcus Camby (10.0 rpg). Assists-San Antonio: Tony Parker (6.1 apg); Denver: Andre Miller (6.9 apg).
Analysis/Prediction: Denver is the proverbial "team that no one wants to face" but the Spurs counter with the man Shaquille O'Neal calls "The Big Fundamental"--Tim Duncan, a smooth and deceptively strong post player who combines impeccable footwork with a deadly bank shot from the wing and a very effective top of the key jump shot (which makes it all the more mystifying that he only shot 67% from the free throw line this year). He dueled Marcus Camby and Kenyon Martin in the NBA Finals in 1999 and 2003 respectively and produced Finals MVP performances on both occasions. Duncan also has a major impact on the defensive end of the court; he is not thought of as an explosive leaper but he annually ranks among the league's best shot blockers, enabling Bruce Bowen, Manu Ginobili and the rest of the Spurs' perimeter players to play very aggressively because they know that Duncan will take care of any guards or forwards who think that they have a clear path to the hoop. If Duncan is healthy, Denver's tremendous record down the stretch will not matter one bit. Watching Houston's Dikembe Mutombo dominate the Nuggets-albeit without Camby--a week before the playoffs start does not speak well of Denver's ability to deal with legitimate post players. However, if Duncan cannot play or performs significantly below par, then Denver has an excellent chance. Ginobili is an "X" factor for the Spurs, a guy who can score 30 points on any given night and who always wreaks havoc with his hustle and savvy. Denver will fight valiantly, but the Spurs win in six games.
