An Out of Date Model


games, Hunter and Blue each started two. Darold Knowles appeared in relief in all seven games. Rollie Fingers relieved in six games. Athletics' manager Dick Williams was starting to manage differently, but evolution, not revolution, was occurring.

The number of complete regular season games began decreasing. In 1978, National League teams averaged 32 complete games and American League teams averaged 46 complete games, but the American League had the designated hitter, which meant managers didn't have to pinch hit for the pitchers. By 1988, National League teams averaged only 23 complete games and the American League, despite the designated hitter, only 25 complete games. In 2004, major league teams averaged 5---repeat---5 complete games.

This season, Roger Clemens of the Houston Astros has started 28 games. He has one complete game. Clemens, a "statistical anomaly" at the age of forty three, has a 1.57 ERA, but because he pitches for an offensively challenged team, Clemens has won only 11 games.

When Roger Clemens started a game this season, there was an excellent chance he would stifle his opponent's offense. There was also an excellent chance that a relief pitcher would decide the game, which is just the point. Starting pitchers are no longer expected to win a game for their team. They are expected to give their team a chance to win. Something is dreadfully wrong.

Some claim that there are few starting pitchers as good as Gibson, McLain, or Clemens, which is a valid claim. But there are few relief pitchers as good as Rivera, Lidge, or Francisco Rodriguez. In today's game, it is expected that the starting pitcher will not complete the game. The result is that when Roger Clemens starts against Cris Carpenter in a battle of Cy Young Award aspirants, the relief pitchers will probably determine the winner. Too many of us fail to acknowledge that fact and continue to give the starting too much weight when assessing a team's chances of winning. It can be a costly error.

References:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leader...

http://www.publicradio.org/columns/kpcc/...

http://www.baseball-reference.com/m/mcla...

http://www.baseball-reference.com/g/gibs...

http://www.baseball-reference.com/league...

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leader...

http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/...

http://houston.astros.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb...

The copyright of the article An Out of Date Model in Baseball is owned by Harold Friend. Permission to republish An Out of Date Model in print or online must be granted by the author in writing.

Go To Page: 1 2 3

Articles in this Topic    Discussions in this Topic