Batting Average is Still the Best


One of the most basic, informative, and useful of all baseball statistics is a player's batting average. For almost a century, batting average was the primary statistic used to measure a hitter's ability but for some "experts," that is no longer true. Batting average is sneered at by most "sabermetricians" because it is too simple and easy to comprehend. It doesn't involve complex formulas nor does it include arbitrarily decided upon values, such as whether pitching is worth 70% of a team's wins or only 69.99% of a team's wins. Simply divide a batter's hits by his official at bats and you have his batting average.

A benchmark has always been the .300 batting average. Casual fans and even those who have never seen a baseball game know that a player who hits .300 is a better hitter than one who hits .250. Mickey Mantle said many times that one of his greatest regrets was not retiring while he still had a .300 lifetime average. It may be perceptual, but there is a world of difference between batting .299 and .300, yet the same cannot be said of the difference between batting .300 and .301.

At the most basic level, a .300 hitter will average three hits every ten times he is charged with at bat (excuse me, a "plate appearance). Of course it is MUCH more complicated than that, but the complications are part of the game and require batting average to be analyzed. They take away none of its inherent value.

One characteristic of statistics is that chance is involved. Stripping away all variables, an action that is impossible in reality, every time Mickey Mantle came to the plate and was charged with an official at bat, he had a 30% chance of hitting safely, or more accurately and precisely, a 29.8% chance of hitting safely.

It is the bottom of the ninth inning with Mantle's Yankees tied with the Indians. The count on Mantle is three balls and two strikes. Since all variables have been eliminated, if Mantle swings at the pitch and hits a fair ball, the Yankees have a 30% of winning the game at that instant. Before sabermetricans start screaming, we recognize that Mantle may swing and not make contact, but for this basic example, we have eliminated that to make things as fundamental as possible. In reality, Mantle's rate of making contact, strikeouts, walks, bunts, checked swings, and foul balls must be taken into account.

The copyright of the article Batting Average is Still the Best in Baseball is owned by Harold Friend. Permission to republish Batting Average is Still the Best in print or online must be granted by the author in writing.

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