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My Predictions For The 75th Annual Academy Awards

Mar 19, 2003 - © Jason O'Brien

or Director. It does have a shot, but I think the Academy will take the opportunity here to honor Pedro Almodovar, and his universally praised foreign film, Talk To Her. It's a tough call, but I think Pedro will take this Oscar.

  • WILL WIN: Talk To Her
  • MY PERSONAL CHOICE: Far From Heaven
  • DESERVED A NOMINATION, BUT DIDN'T GET IT: Punch-Drunk Love

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

    Even tougher to predict is the Adapted Screenplay Oscar. The only one you can really count out is "About A Boy", which was a delightful comedy, but how can it compete against these other wonderful screenplays? "Chicago" has a shot, if only because a sweep is very likely on Oscar Night, and people could mark their ballots for the musical all the way down. "The Pianist" has a shot, if only because the Academy is most likely wanting to honor this film somewhere, but this one really comes down to "The Hours" and "Adaptation", and this one is really too close to call. I would have said "Adaptation" before, especially since its about screenwriters, but then the Writers Guild didn't even award it Best Screenplay, instead selecting "The Hours". So if a group of screenwriters choose "The Hours", I have to think that the entire Academy membership will also go that way, particularly since "The Hours" is up for 9 Oscars, including Best Picture, and "Adaptation" is only up for 4 Oscars. So in a close one, I expect "The Hours" to win here as well, since its writing and acting are being so highly praised.

  • WILL WIN: The Hours
  • MY PERSONAL CHOICE: Adaptation
  • DESERVED A NOMINATION, BUT DIDN'T GET IT: About Schmidt

    BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

    Some wonderful cinematic visions on nomination here, except perhaps for "Chicago." It had a much darker, straight forward look to it which didn't really distinguish itself, and I don't think it has a shot at all. "Gangs of New York" was more widely praised for its art direction, so it's not really in the running here. "The Pianist" does have a chance, as it contained some truly astonishing visuals, but this one comes down to "Far From Heaven" and "Road to Perdition". Edward Lachman's cinematography in "Far From Heaven" was incredibly lush and gorgeous, evoking the colorful 1950's so brilliantly. But the passing of the legendary craftsman Conrad L. Hall gives the Academy one last chance to honor him, and his work on "Road to Perdition" was again some of his

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