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Less Than 2 Weeks To Go ... How Unpredictable Can We Get?

© Jason O'Brien

Can I just not predict the Academy Awards this year? I think it's time to throw in the towel. Just when we thought we had at least a couple of categories that we could count on, they are now thrown out the window too. Chris Cooper? He's not a sure thing anymore. Nicole Kidman? Still a contender, but now is threatened. Best Actor? Still a three man race. Best Supporting Actress? Perhaps a little clearer, but still could be a two woman race. Best Adapted Screenplay? Now it's a race.

Thankfully, we have one category we can count on ... Best Picture. It's going to Chicago without question ... the biggest surprise on Oscar Night now would be a Pianist upset, but it's not going to happen. Well, this past weekend were the last two major precursors before Oscar Night, and oh, how this Oscar race is shaping up to be one of the most unpredictable races in recent history. That is actually a good thing, as it ends up making Oscar Night even more suspenseful and exciting. But it sure plays hell on our abilities as critics to predict. But oh well ...

Saturday night saw the presentation of the Writer's Guild Awards. Their Best Original Screenplay award went to the documentary Bowling for Columbine, which certainly doesn't help predicting the Original Screenplay Oscar since it was not even nominated, but does perhaps show that there is enough support out there for this wonderful documentary for it to win the Documentary Feature Oscar. Their Best Adapted Screenplay choice certainly threw us for a loop, as they selected David Hare's The Hours over the anticipated choice, Adaptation. This certainly throws in the Adapted Screenplay winner into doubt ... I mean, if a group of just screenwriters don't select a universally praised film about screenwriting, I can't imagine the Academy will, although there has been so much praise for the film, that Adaptation still could win. This could end up being a year where all the various precursors can just be thrown out the window ... it's a tough call in so many categories.

But it was nothing compared to the monumental surprise in store at the Screen Actors Guild (SAG) Awards on Sunday night! I practically fell off my couch when Pierce Brosnan announced that the Best Leading Actress winner was Renee Zellweger! Does Hollywood love Chicago or what??? We had figured this race was down to Nicole Kidman, Julianne Moore, and perhaps a chance by Diane Lane (who by the way looked incredible on SAG Night) ... and then Zellweger comes out of the blue and wins one of the biggest acting honors around, and now must be considered a frontrunner with Kidman and Moore for the Best Actress Oscar. I STILL don't think that Zellweger will waltz away with the Oscar, but anything can happen at this point.

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