Murkier Waters: Broadcast Film Critics and Golden Globe Noms

One month ago, right before the film awards season got underway, I made my first predictions for the Best Picture Academy Award category ... my choices were Far From Heaven, Chicago, Gangs of New York, Road to Perdition, and My Big Fat Greek Wedding. I still think Far From Heaven will rebound from this and at least get the nod, but I can't help but think it has been weakened quite a bit by this, and this may actually end up making Chicago, The Hours and Gangs of New York the next frontrunners, so I think my prediction from a long time ago may still hold true ... Gangs of New York may win the whole slam, but I think it is really looking good for Scorsese to finally win an Oscar. I don't think Road to Perdition has a serious shot anymore, especially for Best Director, so I'll replace that film in my predictions with The Hours ... that film is really the one film that has really managed to show itself pretty strongly throughout the film awards season thus far, and I think it's Oscar success for nominations is certain, will most likely bring Meryl Streep her record 13th nomination (topping all others), will likely bring the second nomination in a row for Nicole Kidman, will most likely give director Stephen Daldry another nod, and could very well end up being the frontrunner to win Best Picture. It's tough to tell ... while the film is certainly epic on a human scale, and the performances from what I hear are all first rate, there's still something about it that feels just a little bit out of Oscar's radar, and it could be popular acceptance, as I do not sense a huge boxoffice success from this film.

I don't know what it is ... Gangs of New York could actually end up being that more popular audience film that also has a lot going for it that the Academy may embrace, and of course that chance to honor Scorsese FINALLY ... perhaps our greatest living film director ... may be too irrestible for the Academy.

For Best Actor, I think it's really a horse race between two great actors ... Daniel Day-Lewis and Jack Nicholson, and I really think Jack will make some history and win a fourth Academy Award, which would be his third for Best Actor.

Julianne Moore is still firmly entrenched I believe as the clear frontrunner for Best Actress for Far From Heaven, regardless if the film gets Picture and Director honors. Kathy Bates is still looking great as the lead for Supporting Actress, and Supporting Actor is still a cloudy area.