74th Oscar Countdown: 6 Days

top honor. In The Bedroom, my choice as the year's best film, would be a very worthy choice, but given the power of the other three nominees in the category, they have all the momentum. In The Bedroom only received five nominations compared with the numbers of the other three, so winning this top honor would be quite a hurdle. For a while, it looked like the first Lord of the Rings installment might actually be the frontrunner to win the Academy's top prize, especially after winning the inaugural AFI Award for Best Movie of the Year. But when it came up empty-handed at the Golden Globes, the momentum was taken right out from under the film. You also have to remember that no fantasy type of film like Lord of the Rings has ever won the Academy's top prize. It's simply not the type of film they give that honor to ... they've nominated them in the past, and will continue to do so, but it's just not Oscar's kind of stamp as the Best Picture of the Year. Moulin Rouge is the interesting wild card at this year's Oscars ... second most nominations of any film this year, tied with A Beautiful Mind with 8 nods apiece. Momentum has been nothing but increasing for this offbeat musical which becomes the first musical in a couple of decades to be nominated for Best Picture. Its director was not nominated however, and ultimately, because the film is divided clearly into camps of people who hated it and people who loved it (although I did fall in that strange middle, not really sure whether I liked it or hated it, I certainly admired the craft behind it and certainly loved the visuals and the music), I think it will still fall short of capturing the top honor. I do however think its chances to win are better than Lord of the Rings at this point. Ultimately, I think this one is pretty clear cut ... Ron Howard's A Beautiful Mind is the perfect "Oscar film", with a highly respected ensemble cast, it has the year's likely Best Actor and Best Supporting Actress winners, and I think it will claim Oscar's top prize. But if there's an upset, watch for Moulin Rouge to surprise ... it could be the biggest Oscar upset since Shakespeare in Love stole it from Saving Private Ryan. In such

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