So while Academy members furiously complete their ballots in their final days of voting, here are my predictions in four of the biggest categories.
BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
And the nominees are:
Russell Crowe in "A Beautiful Mind"
Sean Penn in "I Am Sam"
Will Smith in "Ali"
Denzel Washington in "Training Day"
Tom Wilkinson in "In The Bedroom"
Well, the one who can be counted out right away is Sean Penn, which I'm still surprised actually got nominated. Most of the critics were more annoyed by this performance than blown away, and I'm surprised the Academy nominated him for that film. The film has had very poor to lukewarm reviews. Will Smith's accomplishment is the nomination, and his incredible transformation into Muhammad Ali was worthy of this nod, and I'm happy to see him up there. But since the film was not as widely embraced as most thought it would be (I actually thought it would be the frontrunner back in early previewing before these films were released), he won't be able to win Best Actor. Tom Wilkinson's nod is also richly deserved, but he can't compete with the two heavyweights who will battle for this award. This one comes down to Denzel Washington and Russell Crowe, and it could go either way. Once again, though, I'm upset by the prospect that Denzel may win for this film, when he deserved it for so many other better performances, especially his performance as Malcolm X. But now people are saying that the Academy may be ready to honor him with a lead actor prize after years of not giving him the top Actor honor. If Russell Crowe had not won last year for Gladiator, he would clearly be the frontrunner to win. But once again, we have that interesting "second year in a row" prize issue that always comes up -- the Academy has very rarely ever given an actor two Best Actor Oscars in a row, the last time being Tom Hanks in 1993 and 1994. This is Crowe's third straight nomination, and the only thing hurting him may be the fact that the Academy thinks he's been honored too much. Crowe certainly deserves to win, much more than he did last year, and the performance has been so universally praised, it's hard to predict against him, but I'm going to. I think Denzel will get his Best Actor Oscar this year, although it really should have been for another performance.
