The final precursor presented since last time were the British Academy Film Awards (BAFTAs), which had usually followed the Oscars, now moved to February. And Lord of the Rings fans are rejoicing that their film has suddenly gained tons of momentum somehow by claiming the BAFTA Prize as Best Picture of the year (Gosford Park also fared well over there.) Since when have the BAFTAs become a huge predictor of ultimate Oscar success? Sure, they may have agreed with Oscar's choices from time to time, but no one has ever considered them a major precursor like the various guild awards or the Golden Globes.
I don't think I've seen a film gain a crowd quite like the crowd that is trumpeting Lord of the Rings as not only this year's best film, but as one of the best films of all time. And they also are adamant that the Academy is going to give it tons of Oscars, setting records, and that it will certainly win Best Picture. Folks, Lord of the Rings could not be further off Oscar's radar now, and I've said it before and I will say it again ... fantasy films full of elves, hobbits, and mythical forces simply do not claim Oscar's top prize as Best Picture. And it shouldn't ... yes indeed, Peter Jackson did a great job, the film is an enjoyable visual marvel, and yes, it's one of the ten best films of the year, but come Oscar Night, it will most likely only win four to five Oscars, all in technical categories. This film and this series is not The Godfather remember ... it's pure escapist adventure which did not really break any new ground, and it does not deserve any of the top honors, Picture, Director, or Screenplay ... simple as that. And I'd have one note to add to this ardent group of supporters ... passion for your film is fine, and to be embraced, but remember, not everyone agrees with you, and you owe your film the courtesy of engaging in intelligent debate over the merits of that film and others released this year, and not these continual insults and slams.
But anyway, moving on (now that I've stirred up that pot again!) ... now to my first group of predictions for this year's Academy Awards. Four categories in each article, and since the Art Directors and Film Editing guilds have presented their awards most recently, I'll start with the Art Direction and Film Editing Oscars, and also throw out my "guesses" for the two short film categories.
