So what's in the front running at this point? Of course all of the December films have yet to play out, so it's hard to tell what kind of buzz they will end up having. For films released so far, I would say the following films have the best opportunities to receive Academy Award nominations, and may do well in the various precursor awards ...
The Others (most likely for Nicole Kidman only)
Moulin Rouge (for technical nods, and possibly Nicole Kidman again)
Memento (may do very well with critics organizations, but still tough to call for Oscar consideration)
Shrek (certainly will be up for the Oscar for Animated Feature, hard to tell if it will get any other serious Oscar consideration)
In The Bedroom (currently in limited release, still has good buzz for Sissy Spacek)
Amelie (the current favorite to take the Foreign Language Film Oscar)
The Affair of the Necklace (In release right now, getting great reviews, could be in contention)
Harry Potter (only for technical nominations, I wouldn't expect any critics nods either)
Life as a House (if only for Kevin Kline, will depend on how the Best Actor race is looking in a month)
Other films that could still be contention for one category or another: K-Pax, The Deep End, Planet of the Apes (Makeup is in the bag), A.I. (if only for technical nods, maybe Haley Joel Osment for Best Actor, but looking slimmer every day), Bridget Jones's Diary (if only for Renee Zellweger's winning performance), and Waking Life (which I sincerely hope they honor with more than just an Animated Feature nod).
But still, those films together do not make up a very strong Oscar field, so I still think Oscar's main contenders will come from December's films. Getting the best buzz for Oscar consideration from films yet to be released ... Ali, A Beautiful Mind, The Shipping News, The Majestic, Monster's Ball (for Halle Berry), and Black Hawk Down. So it will be interesting to see what the various precursor awards choose as their selections, and over the next few weeks, the Oscar circle of films will start to become clearer.
