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My First Early Predictions for 74th Annual Oscar Nominations

© Nicholas Moreau

Last week, I completed my 2001 fall and winter film preview, looking ahead to the films to be released, and I began handicapping their chances at winning Oscar nominations and possible Oscars. As usually happens when I do those previews, I also attempt to make my first early predictions for who and what I predict will nominated for the next Academy Awards. Of course, most of these kinds of predictions can only be based on advance buzz and knowledge of past Academy successes. Of course, some of the films included in my nominations have already been released, but again, it's hard to gauge at this point their viability for Oscar nominations. Films from earlier in the year, especially this year, will have to rely on critics awards and Golden Globe awards to make it into the Oscar race.

Unfortunately, I really don't think A.I. will end up getting a Best Picture nomination. It unfortunately has lost so much momentum, and while Spielberg may still have a shot at a Director nod, I don't think it will be in the Best Picture circle. That's unfortunate, as it really is one of the best films of the year, and one of the boldest efforts ever delivered by Spielberg.

But without further adieu, I present this week my early predictions for who and what I think at this point, some 4 1/2 months from the nominations announcement, will be nominated for the 74th Annual Academy Awards. And once again, remember, these are my PREDICTIONS, not my personal choices ... my personal choices could end up being very different. And of course, sleeper successes are hard to predict, and there's always some surprise Oscar film that none of us expected ... for example, I still think Life as a House could end up being a sleeper Oscar film, but anyway, here goes ...

BEST PICTURE
Ali
Memento
Gangs of New York
A Beautiful Mind
The Shipping News

BEST ACTOR
Haley Joel Osment in A.I.
Will Smith in Ali
Kevin Spacey in The Shipping News
Russell Crowe in A Beautiful Mind
Jim Carrey in The Majestic

BEST ACTRESS
Hilary Swank in The Affair of the Necklace
Sissy Spacek in In the Bedroom
Julianne Moore in The Shipping News
Anjelica Huston in The Royal Tenenbaums
Tilda Swinton in The Deep End

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Jude Law in A.I.
James Gandolfini in The Last Castle
Tim Roth in Planet of the Apes
Martin Landau in The Majestic
Ian Holm in From Hell

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
As usual, this one is incredibly hard to predict, not a whole lot to choose from so far