Well, thanks a lot, SAG Awards! Not!

Judi Dench? She's become like the Meryl Streep of the elder group, always up for an Oscar no matter what performance she gives. She won an Oscar for six or seven minutes of screen time in Shakespeare in Love just two Oscars ago, and yet people think she could win again ... even though she won the SAG award, I still do not see the Academy giving her this Oscar again so soon. Billy Elliot did not receive as many nominations as most had thought, so Julie Walters really doesn't have a shot at winning. Like Ed Harris, Marcia Gay Harden has a shot at sneaking in with perhaps a double Pollock win, but her chances are less than Ed Harris's at winning.

So I think it comes down to the two actresses from Cameron Crowe's overlooked but truly wonderful film, Almost Famous. Frances McDormand would be the personal choice of a lot of critics, including me, but I think the Academy will love to have the opportunity to give the Oscar to Goldie Hawn's daughter, Kate Hudson, who did indeed give a memorable performance in that film. Just like last year when they gave the Oscar to the daughter of an Oscar winner, they will do it again this year.

BEST DIRECTOR
Stephen Daldry for "Billy Elliot"
Ang Lee for "Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon"
Steven Soderbergh for "Erin Brockovich"
Ridley Scott for "Gladiator"
Steven Soderbergh for "Traffic"

Well, this is the story of Steven Soderbergh, and his unique achievement making history at the Oscars. Not only is he nominated twice for Best Director, a feat not seen since it happened to Michael Curtiz in the 1930's, but both of his films are nominated for Best Picture. Clearly, Soderbergh deserves to win the Oscar for Best Director, and it should really be for Traffic -- not only did he direct the film, but he also served as the cinematographer, shooting the film himself. His film is so skillfully put together, and I wish the Academy could have separated his directorial achievements, and only nominated him for Traffic.

This category is by far the most difficult to predict. Soderbergh apparently split the vote at the Golden Globes and the Directors Guild, and Ang Lee snuck in to win. The same could happen here. But it's not that easy. In a sweep which Gladiator may indeed do, the Academy

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