To continue my series from last week, I'll wrap up my predictions with a look at the other three major awards, Supporting Actor and Actress, and the coveted Best Director prize.
Best Supporting Actor nominees are James Coburn, Robert Duvall, Ed Harris, Geoffrey Rush, and Billy Bob Thornton. Look at this incredible list of actors! Talk about tough! Coburn's nomination, the first ever in his career, was a nice surprise, but I don't think he'll win over these other performances. Duvall was not distinctive enough in "Civil Action," and the film was not as widely acclaimed as some might thought it would be. Rush's performance is goofy and fun to watch, but he won't win the Oscar this time (he won a couple of years ago in the leading category for "Shine"). So it comes down to two I think - Ed Harris was incredible in his performance as Christof, the creator of the popular Truman Show. Harris has yet to win an Oscar, and he may get his due here (he did win the Golden Globe). But how can they ignore Thornton's incredible performance in "Simple Plan" ... he's won several of the critics awards, and he may win here. Another one that is too tough to call ... but I think they may go with Thornton for his portrayal of a very sad character. Although as I think about more and more, Harris may win for the fact that he's never won before. Duvall may have won the SAG award, but he won't win the Oscar.
Best Supporting Actress nominees are Kathy Bates, Rachel Griffiths, Judi Dench, Brenda Blethyn, and Lynn Redgrave. And yet another tough category to predict! This one is a three-way horse race - you can pretty much count out Blethyn and Griffiths - their performances were not distinctive enough to beat out the other three. Judi Dench had only about six minutes of total screen time as Queen Elizabeth in "Shakespeare," but what an incredible six minutes it was! She stole every scene she was in, and was brilliant, and the Academy may choose to honor her after a long distinguished career. Kathy Bates has been winning several critics awards, and she would be my personal choice in this category, but the film was released at the beginning of the year, and I don't know if she can take it. My prediction is Lynn Redgrave, for her performance in "Gods and Monsters," a strong performance that already has won her a surprise Golden Globe. The momentum seems to be going her way, and I think she'll win this Oscar. But Dench certainly has a shot. Bates won the SAG award, so that seems to put her more in the running, but I just don't know. Supporting Actress is anyone's guess, really, this year.
